Trend in young people getting a driver's license?

[temporal1]

i’m glad to see this topic, i had no idea it was a trend of any kind.

i didn’t get a driver’s license until i was 19, and not anxious to get it then.
in my case, i was afraid of the responsibility, i was terrified i might hurt someone.
i could walk to school, about a mile one way, sometimes getting a ride with my dad.
i couldn’t possibly afford to buy a car. it was mostly a non-issue. i knew some other teens couldn’t wait to drive.

in this last year, i have been distressed that my daughter has been more than anxious to get her 15 year old daughter driving -
the child doesn’t want to. i’ve assured both that there’s no problem waiting. where they live, driving automatically puts you on interstates, it’s urban with all urban complications.

i’m not anxious to throw my pretty young grdaughter out into the sea of iniquity. she’s modest and sweet, and can become overwhelmed, she could easily be taken advantage of.

my daughter pressed her to take driver’s ed, AND paid about $1000 for private driving lessons. she’s 15!
what is the rush?!

i was there in March. from toddler years, i encouraged her to be aware of where we were driving, she learned a lot by helping me navigate. in March, i was impressed by her navigation skills and understanding of Rules of the Road and road etiquette.
she has no desire to drive, and i have no problem with that.

she is accustomed to her mother pushing her as a matter of course. i suspect her reluctance is a general survival response.
not just about driving.

in our busy lives, i enjoy driving children and teens, it can give quality time. when our son went to college, 3 hours away, i enjoyed those trips. he was so quiet. while driving, he would relax and open up in ways he didn’t at other times. i loved those drives.

time is gold. don’t wish it away.

i don’t think my daughter is aware of how much she might lose by pushing early driving.
i’m pleased my grdaughter is learning how to resist pushy people. ‘cause the world is full of them. learning to say no, even when you might not have an immediate reason, is an important life skill.

God bless them.

[Ken]

....
1. ... people tend to drive cars longer before getting rid of them ....

Not a "challenge", just a question.

How long is "longer"? My dad was in the automobile industry (Parts service desk in auto dealerships, various makes over the years), and when he saw a car come out that he liked he would remember to watch for a used one four or so years later. Then typically that car was used as the family car for around 6 to 8 years, usually 10 thousand miles after turning over to 100,000 miles, at which time it was replaced in that function by another used car, and became his work car. Then it was driven in that capacity until it was retired to the back pasture. The 62 Chrysler didn't get that far before replacement as the family car, and after a few years I got it, and was the one to 'turn it over'. (It was 15 years old when I got it, where upon I drove it up to Minnesota, for college. But it still made it back for its retirement in the field a couple of years later.)

We live in the Salt Belt, so we don't drive them till they are that old. The bottoms fall out of them before they get up there. Our first minivan only made it to 17 years old, 136,000 miles. The 2000 only hit about 10 years, but I don't have a pasture, and so I sold it, basically for scrap price. Our oldest car is currently a 2009 model, but built in the previous July. Then a 2010. (Well, I'm not counting the first car I bought in my own name, which I still have. It's a 46 Plymouth, a restoration project I started after I bought it in 1980. Then I also have a 49 Plymouth as well, which I bought for parts in 81.)

Here are some data:

I think both of these trends explain why it is harder for the average teen to find a cheap reliable used car that can be easily fixed up. New car prices are greatly outstripping the rate of inflation and people are keeping older cars much longer than they used to back in the day. Harder for a kid to find a reliable inexpensive used car for cheap that just needs a little TLC.

And working on modern cars is so much more difficult and expensive than it used to be. I just had my wife's 2014 Highlander get the 100,000 mile service. The maintenance schedule calls for spark plug replacement. I was shocked to find that is a $800 job that involves 3-hours of shop labor to remove the manifold in order to even reach the spark plugs, and then plugs themselves are over $100. I passed. She can drive on the old plugs a few more years.

Your average poor kid who is working at McDonalds after school to help mom pay the rent. What car would you suggest he or she buy today? And what is the monthly cost going to be to keep it insured and operational? Cheap beat up WV bugs are no longer available like they were when I was that age. In fact cheap small cars are vanishing from the marketplace as everyone seems to want fancy SUVs or expensive trucks these days.

[Neto]

You still didn't say how long you meant by "longer", but I see from your graphs that my growing up experience was vastly different from what they show as the average. And according to the tag that was on it when I bought it, my 46 Plymouth was 30 years old at that time (year of last tag).

I think that cars now do not last as long as they did back 70 years ago, and it's exactly down the line of what you point out - way too expensive to properly maintain & repair, and especially the electronics. But then there is the average wage to compare as well. When I was 19, in my first year of Bible school, the minimum wage was $2.00. (I was working for the school under a government grant program, so I wasn't getting minimum wage - I got $1.80/hour.) In my last semester of college (I squeezed a 4 year degree into 4 1/2 years, so I was 23 at that time) I was working 27 hours a week, nights. One day in class my Theology II teacher remarked that when HE was at the same school, the students had to pay every two weeks, or they would be sent home. He said "I had to work 27 hours a week to keep up." I knew exactly what my weekly cost was, so after quickly doing a bit of math, I leaned over to the girl sitting next to me and told her "I'm working 27 hours a week, and I'm not keeping up." She said "Tell him", but I didn't dare. For perspective, he was in school in the early 20's, now 100 years ago. But like you said, wages are not keeping up with inflation, and while that was just a Bible Institute (non accredited), I doubt if you could keep up on 27 hours a week now, probably even less so than for me, at that time (Fall semester, 1978).

Attempts have been made to build really small cars, and it works in many foreign countries, but those little cars just don't mix with semis. In Porto Velho, the capitol of Rondonia, there was no road in town that had a speed limit of over 60 KPH, and most were only 40 KPH. The highway going south was, as I recall, 80 KPH. (That is less than 50 MPH.) If the average vehicle size was like those small Fiats, or even like the Mini-Cooper, then it would be a different story. But the US also has very strict safety laws, and the really small cars built in places like many countries in Asia do not qualify. Americans have a severe "need for speed".

[Ken]

You still didn't say how long you meant by "longer", but I see from your graphs that my growing up experience was vastly different from what they show as the average. And according to the tag that was on it when I bought it, my 46 Plymouth was 30 years old at that time (year of last tag).

I think that cars now do not last as long as they did back 70 years ago, and it's exactly down the line of what you point out - way too expensive to properly maintain & repair, and especially the electronics. But then there is the average wage to compare as well. When I was 19, in my first year of Bible school, the minimum wage was $2.00. (I was working for the school under a government grant program, so I wasn't getting minimum wage - I got $1.80/hour.) In my last semester of college (I squeezed a 4 year degree into 4 1/2 years, so I was 23 at that time) I was working 27 hours a week, nights. One day in class my Theology II teacher remarked that when HE was at the same school, the students had to pay every two weeks, or they would be sent home. He said "I had to work 27 hours a week to keep up." I knew exactly what my weekly cost was, so after quickly doing a bit of math, I leaned over to the girl sitting next to me and told her "I'm working 27 hours a week, and I'm not keeping up." She said "Tell him", but I didn't dare. For perspective, he was in school in the early 20's, now 100 years ago. But like you said, wages are not keeping up with inflation, and while that was just a Bible Institute (non accredited), I doubt if you could keep up on 27 hours a week now, probably even less so than for me, at that time (Fall semester, 1978).

Attempts have been made to build really small cars, and it works in many foreign countries, but those little cars just don't mix with semis. In Porto Velho, the capitol of Rondonia, there was no road in town that had a speed limit of over 60 KPH, and most were only 40 KPH. The highway going south was, as I recall, 80 KPH. (That is less than 50 MPH.) If the average vehicle size was like those small Fiats, or even like the Mini-Cooper, then it would be a different story. But the US also has very strict safety laws, and the really small cars built in places like many countries in Asia do not qualify. Americans have a severe "need for speed".

I don't know how much is "longer" either. My wife's 2014 Highlander is now 9 years old but basically looks pretty new. The current model is only changed slightly. But my perception which is born out by the data is that people tend to buy and keep cars longer than in the past. And then when modern cars do get towards the end of their useful life, the repairs are substantially more expensive and complicated than say 40 years ago due to all the electronics and complicated engines. So buying a beater to fix up is a bigger risk today.

In any event, it certainly isn't impossible to today's teens to acquire cars. The student lot at my HS is pretty full every day. But I do think it is a bigger financial hurdle for today's teens of limited means than it might have been a generation or two ago when there were lots more small cheap cars on the road. VW Bugs, cheap Japanese cars, Ford Pintos etc. With manual everything and the only electronics being an AM/FM radio.

The other data point is that wealthier parents seem to be more willing to shuttle teens around today, even when they are age 16 and above. I think that is just part of the culture of helicopter parenting today. Something my parents would NEVER had done. Having your mom come with you on a date would have been incredibly "cringe" and awkward when I was a teen in the 1980s. Today it seems pretty normal.

[Neto]

The other data point is that wealthier parents seem to be more willing to shuttle teens around today, even when they are age 16 and above. I think that is just part of the culture of helicopter parenting today. Something my parents would NEVER had done. Having your mom come with you on a date would have been incredibly "cringe" and awkward when I was a teen in the 1980s. Today it seems pretty normal.

I took Drivers Ed at 15 1/2 in the Summer of 71, but then I became involved in environmentalism to the extent that had my Dad not stopped me, I wanted to mow our (large) lawn with a non-powered push mower - the type with no engine. I also didn't get my license until two years later, when I was 18 1/2. While I was still in HS, my Mom DID actually take me to pick up a girl, to go to some function at the school, I think. You can't pick up a girl on a bicycle, and maybe especially when it's 6 miles away. I don't know if we were "a thing" at that time, it might have been sort of after, when I was still interested in her, but she was, for mostly unknown reasons, no longer interested in me. (The only part of that she ever told me was that she knew I was heading into missionary work, and she didn't think she could do that. I realize that I was rather "intense" then already, and I "just knew" that, One, I was going to be a missionary, and Two, that I wanted to marry her. I was around 17 at the time. But her family was even poorer than mine, so maybe there was a part of that reason that she didn't want to say - that she would not be financially able to go to Bible college, and she didn't want to "hold me back" from my choice for missions.)

[steve-in-kville]

We live in the Salt Belt, so we don't drive them till they are that old. The bottoms fall out of them before they get up there. Our first minivan only made it to 17 years old, 136,000 miles. The 2000 only hit about 10 years, but I don't have a pasture, and so I sold it, basically for scrap price. Our oldest car is currently a 2009 model, but built in the previous July. Then a 2010. (Well, I'm not counting the first car I bought in my own name, which I still have. It's a 46 Plymouth, a restoration project I started after I bought it in 1980. Then I also have a 49 Plymouth as well, which I bought for parts in 81.)

I got 260K out of the old Ford before the heads started to go. Barely got it to the scrap yard. The Chevy we are running now is at 216K and I had to bribe the shop with a case if cheese curls to look past the "iffy" rust and pass inspection. We're not gonna get another year out of it.

[Ken]

The other data point is that wealthier parents seem to be more willing to shuttle teens around today, even when they are age 16 and above. I think that is just part of the culture of helicopter parenting today. Something my parents would NEVER had done. Having your mom come with you on a date would have been incredibly "cringe" and awkward when I was a teen in the 1980s. Today it seems pretty normal.

I took Drivers Ed at 15 1/2 in the Summer of 71, but then I became involved in environmentalism to the extent that had my Dad not stopped me, I wanted to mow our (large) lawn with a non-powered push mower - the type with no engine. I also didn't get my license until two years later, when I was 18 1/2. While I was still in HS, my Mom DID actually take me to pick up a girl, to go to some function at the school, I think. You can't pick up a girl on a bicycle, and maybe especially when it's 6 miles away. I don't know if we were "a thing" at that time, it might have been sort of after, when I was still interested in her, but she was, for mostly unknown reasons, no longer interested in me. (The only part of that she ever told me was that she knew I was heading into missionary work, and she didn't think she could do that. I realize that I was rather "intense" then already, and I "just knew" that, One, I was going to be a missionary, and Two, that I wanted to marry her. I was around 17 at the time. But her family was even poorer than mine, so maybe there was a part of that reason that she didn't want to say - that she would not be financially able to go to Bible college, and she didn't want to "hold me back" from my choice for missions.)

Yes, there are always the odd cases. What I'm talking about is this.

I attended HS from 79-82 at a large middle class suburban HS in Oregon. The number of parents dropping off kids at school every morning and picking up every afternoon you could probably count on one or two hands. And it was usually for some good reason like the kid was dragging a cello or tuba to school that couldn't be carried on a bike or school bus. Back then if you were a HS kid you got yourself to school, somehow. You rode a bike, walked, too, the bus, or maybe got a job and bought a car. There were also a row of student motorcycles out front which I don't see anymore.

Today I teach at several similar schools and at every one there is blocks-long morning and afternoon congestion as hundreds of parents are lining up to drop off or pick up their HS children. Despite the same exact walk, bike, school bus, and driving options that existed 40 years ago. Crime is no different or less than before. The streets are the same streets, in fact often have better sidewalks and bike lanes. But parents just don't seem to want their kids navigating the real world on their own.

And as for taking your mom on a date? I ran into two students I know the other day out on a date at the nearby Panda Express. Mom was sitting at the table with them. You would be surprised how involved many middle and upper-middle class parents are with every aspect of their teen's lives. So it frankly doesn't surprise me if many are not bothering with driver's licenses if mom is there to be their private driver anywhere they want to go. And if Uber is available anytime she isn't.

Even many colleges these days discourage cars. I've been visiting some with my youngest daughter. Some of them flat-out prohibit freshmen from bringing cars to campus. Others in more urban/suburban areas have so many alternative transit options that cars frankly make no sense. And where cars are still kind of important they gouge you. When my oldest daughter attended Arkansas she needed a car for her off-campus job and for all the church youth leadership stuff she was involved in. And also to get back and forth to Texas. I was shocked by how much the university charged for student parking. It was in the hundreds of dollars per quarter.

[Neto]

We live in the Salt Belt, so we don't drive them till they are that old. The bottoms fall out of them before they get up there. Our first minivan only made it to 17 years old, 136,000 miles. The 2000 only hit about 10 years, but I don't have a pasture, and so I sold it, basically for scrap price. Our oldest car is currently a 2009 model, but built in the previous July. Then a 2010. (Well, I'm not counting the first car I bought in my own name, which I still have. It's a 46 Plymouth, a restoration project I started after I bought it in 1980. Then I also have a 49 Plymouth as well, which I bought for parts in 81.)

I got 260K out of the old Ford before the heads started to go. Barely got it to the scrap yard. The Chevy we are running now is at 216K and I had to bribe the shop with a case if cheese curls to look past the "iffy" rust and pass inspection. We're not gonna get another year out of it.

I don't know that this would still be a profitable situation, due to current used car values, and also because of what Ken mentioned, the complexity of modern vehicles, but if it is running well, you might consider the idea that a 'Yankee' that had come down to Oklahoma from some northern abode of the Salt Devil, but what he was doing is driving an older high-mileage oil-burning southern car "back up where ever he came from", and swapping in a good engine out of a rusted out car he got in a salvage. I'm thinking that it wouldn't be worthwhile in this day and age, but I don't know.

[Ken]

We live in the Salt Belt, so we don't drive them till they are that old. The bottoms fall out of them before they get up there. Our first minivan only made it to 17 years old, 136,000 miles. The 2000 only hit about 10 years, but I don't have a pasture, and so I sold it, basically for scrap price. Our oldest car is currently a 2009 model, but built in the previous July. Then a 2010. (Well, I'm not counting the first car I bought in my own name, which I still have. It's a 46 Plymouth, a restoration project I started after I bought it in 1980. Then I also have a 49 Plymouth as well, which I bought for parts in 81.)

I got 260K out of the old Ford before the heads started to go. Barely got it to the scrap yard. The Chevy we are running now is at 216K and I had to bribe the shop with a case if cheese curls to look past the "iffy" rust and pass inspection. We're not gonna get another year out of it.

I don't know that this would still be a profitable situation, due to current used car values, and also because of what Ken mentioned, the complexity of modern vehicles, but if it is running well, you might consider the idea that a 'Yankee' that had come down to Oklahoma from some northern abode of the Salt Devil, but what he was doing is driving an older high-mileage oil-burning southern car "back up where ever he came from", and swapping in a good engine out of a rusted out car he got in a salvage. I'm thinking that it wouldn't be worthwhile in this day and age, but I don't know.

There is all kinds of geographic arbitrage that can be done.

Here in the Pacific Northwest they don't use salt and we don't have intense sun like the SW so car bodies last a long time, longer than the car itself. And you see more decent looking old cars on the road. A LOT of people in Alaska would come down and buy cars here and ship them back up for that reason.

More recently I've been keeping an eye on the used market for electric cars. It turns out that hot climates are hard on car batteries so you don't want to buy a used Tesla or Leaf that has lived in Arizona for 5 years because the battery is more likely to be thrashed than if it was used in a colder climate.

Ultimately I'm not sure if all the effort to move cars around like that really saves much. Since there is a lot of time and hassle involved with moving a car across the country. Swapping an engine out on a modern car is also a different proposition than it used to be as there are so many more systems to connect/disconnect and the clearances are so tight compared to on old cars where you had room to work.

There are people with lots of time on their hands who seem to relish doing that sort of thing. Not for me. If I need to help one of my daughters get a used car I'm just going to do it locally with as least hassle as possible and be done with it.

Back in the day when I worked in Guatemala there were lots of people who would buy decent US vehicles (especially Toyota pickups) and drive them down to Guatemala for re-sale to avoid all the excessive taxes and the monopoly that a few oligarch families had on all the new car dealerships. I don't know if that is still done. It is only about 1200 miles drive from south Texas to Guatemala on mostly freeways so that isn't as big of a deal as it might seem.

[Robert]

In 20 years there will be self driving cars and no one will worry about a drivers license.