Trend in young people getting a driver's license?

[Neto]

Construction projects escalate during the summers in the northern climes. So it's inevitable that there will be many situations where a vehicle (or driver) needs to be able to deal with traffic cones in at least one lane, detours, closed roads. Here in Berlin it's jay walkers. And what about the ability to notice a car, buggy, or bike approaching from a side road - the driver must be able to access the possibility that this other vehicle will not stop at the cross road. Or even just to remember that the car you saw on a far hill that disappeared into a dip in the highway is still coming, even though it is no longer visible, and that vehicle could meet you very suddenly at the top of a hill. Then the farm tractors with wide equipment, etc. Four way stops. Where do you look to discern the intentions of the other vehicle if there is no driver, no face you can see to guess their intention, or no hand signal to go ahead in uncertain situations? (Of course these are situations where it is an actual driver, and a "non-driver". Some say that it will be much safer when the human element is removed entirely, but I don't buy it. A driverless car is basically a computer, and computers sometimes make the stupidest "logical" blunders. And as computers get older, that become more frequent.

[Ken]

Construction projects escalate during the summers in the northern climes. So it's inevitable that there will be many situations where a vehicle (or driver) needs to be able to deal with traffic cones in at least one lane, detours, closed roads. Here in Berlin it's jay walkers. And what about the ability to notice a car, buggy, or bike approaching from a side road - the driver must be able to access the possibility that this other vehicle will not stop at the cross road. Or even just to remember that the car you saw on a far hill that disappeared into a dip in the highway is still coming, even though it is no longer visible, and that vehicle could meet you very suddenly at the top of a hill. Then the farm tractors with wide equipment, etc. Four way stops. Where do you look to discern the intentions of the other vehicle if there is no driver, no face you can see to guess their intention, or no hand signal to go ahead in uncertain situations? (Of course these are situations where it is an actual driver, and a "non-driver". Some say that it will be much safer when the human element is removed entirely, but I don't buy it. A driverless car is basically a computer, and computers sometimes make the stupidest "logical" blunders. And as computers get older, that become more frequent.

Those are my exact thoughts. If there was nothing on the road but other computerized self-driving cars, and all the roads were orderly then it might be different. But we don't live in that world and probably never will, at least not for generations.

A whole lot of driving in congested areas involves eye-contact with other drivers, a wave to let you squeeze in, or motion someone else in front of you. Breaking traffic rules to avoid obstacles. Briefly double-parking to let someone in or out of the car, Avoiding things like driving over fire hoses on the road (which is apparently a problem with self-driving cars). So a lot of driving actually involves social engagement with other drivers. A computer, at least today, can't do any of that.

For that reason, I expect self-driving will be like glorified cruise control for a long time still. It might work fine 95% of the time, but you still need a licensed driver behind the controls to step in as necessary.

Where I expect to see the first exceptions are with trucks that take a predictable route from point A to point B. Say a truck that goes from one suburban factory to a warehouse 30 miles away on the same suburban highway that is optimized for that purpose, and never tries to go anywhere else. That seems reasonably approachable from a technology point of view. But is only really going to work on certain routes, at least at first. City buses might be another example where they always take the same exact route and same stops and never vary.

[ohio jones]

City buses might be another example where they always take the same exact route and same stops and never vary.

A full-scale implementation of BRT might be a candidate, but regular city buses are far too chaotic.

[Josh]

City buses might be another example where they always take the same exact route and same stops and never vary.

A full-scale implementation of BRT might be a candidate, but regular city buses are far too chaotic.

Yes, how would fully automated ones manage to leave you waiting a half hour at bus stop on some days and other days being right on time so you miss it if you’re 30 seconds latev