Global Warning/Climate Change

Things that are not part of politics happening presently and how we approach or address it as Anabaptists.
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Bootstrap
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

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ken_sylvania wrote:In my experience, there is a certain amount of real-world "common sense" that can tend to be missing in academia. Agricultural scientists have done a lot of research and provided much helpful input to farmers to help them improve their farming methods. With just a bit of time, I'm certain that I could pull together a list of 100 different feed additives and/or changes in practice that a farmer could implement that have been shown in scientific studies to improve profits by anywhere from $0.03 - $.50 per head per day. Do the math. If the average profit increase is $.20 per method, that's an increase in profit of twenty dollars per head per day, or about an additional $7,000 per head per year. Not going to happen, sorry.
I'm guessing here, but I'd bet that studies on feed additives are largely funded by people who want to sell them, much as studies on pharmaceuticals are largely funded by the pharmaceutical industry. I certainly wouldn't trust any one study, and publication bias is a real problem, especially in studies funded by people who want to sell you something. So you really do want to see what protections there are against publication bias. For pharmaceuticals, some protections have been put in place, and we are slowly learning that a lot of medicines are not as effective as they have claimed. Quite a few studies showing this were published around 2008, and the rules for publishing pharmaceutical research have changed as a result. Here is another study from 2008:
The outcome of our investigation should not be used to dispute the value of systematic literature reviews and meta-analyses in general. However, for anyone who relies on published data alone to choose a specific drug, our results should be a cause for concern. Without access to all studies (positive as well as negative, published as well as unpublished) and without access to alternative analyses (intention to treat as well as per protocol), any attempt to recommend a specific drug is likely to be based on biased evidence.
And of course, even if one medicine is effective, taking two effective medicines may have a completely different result. There could be two different medicines that each effectively treat migraines, but if I take them both, it might result in a worse migraine or in death. For feed additives, maybe one would give you an additional $.20 per head per day, adding a second might bring you back to zero, adding a third might kill the animal, adding a fourth might bring it back to life ... who knows? You really have to study the combinations.

With medicine, that makes me very cautious. A lot of medicines were approved before we had the current protections in place, and very few of the studies tell you much about taking several medicines at the same time. Worse, I think there are still significant issues of bias in medical research.

Part of the problem is relying on the people who want to sell us something to fund the studies.
The evidence we have presented dictates that trials should be conducted by independent bodies.

Common sense suggests the same thing. Imagine the govern- ment proposed disbanding the electoral commission in favour of letting politicians count their own votes. This would not be accepted for various reasons. Politicians are not objective. They have invested time and money campaigning. They believe in their party. They want to win. The less honest politician might fabricate results. The more honest might approach the task with sincerity, but be influenced subconsciously into appraising incomplete ballot forms as valid based on their endorsements. For these valid reasons, the results would not be accepted so that would be a waste of time and money. If this is the case why is accepting the ‘vote counting’ of industry in demonstrating the efficacy of their own products any less flawed? And we do not need a thought experiment to explore whether the results are biased. Real experiments have repeatedly shown this.

One might object by noting that randomized trials are very expensive. It was perhaps thought that industry-funded randomized trials represented a happy coincidence between commercial self-interest and the public good. However, this has been a false economy. Not only have the research costs incurred by industry been recouped from the public [63], but the resulting evidence base is neither robust nor reliable. Moreover, as the patients end up paying for the treatments (either via taxation, insurance policies or out of pocket), the least-biased method for evaluating treatments would seem to be in their interest. Certainly, what we have written here suggests that patients would be saving money in the long run if trials were independent.
If you look at the previous link, it refers to studies openly funded by these companies, so we at least know who they are and what their interest is. Even then, we need protections in place.

But hidden funding from the biggest polluters pays for most of the climate change denial literature, and that's even less trustworthy. One of the big things climate change deniers want is to eliminate the kind of independent research that is proving so valuable in pharmaceuticals.
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Robert
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

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Bootstrap wrote: In the last five years, has any reputable scientific association published a statement questioning the consensus on climate change? Here's a list of scientific associations that believe global warming is largely caused by human activity. There are links to their official statements.
And how many of them are using faulty IPAA data that has been shown to be incorrect and manipulated?

I don't know that nor do you.

The challenge is some of the root data is being manipulated.

Again, we are warming. How can a slight raise in co2 cause massive warming when h2o does the same amount of greenhouse reflection and it is massive times higher then co2 levels? How come the earth had 24% co2 and it still had ice ages?

If the world has had much higher levels of co2 then present and humans were not around, could it be that the co2 level increase is not as tied to humanity?

Could it be ther the increase of co2 is actually a good thing? During the Jurassic the medium temperature was 10 degrees higher than now and there was 10x the amount of life on the planet.
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Bootstrap
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

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Robert wrote:
Bootstrap wrote:In the last five years, has any reputable scientific association published a statement questioning the consensus on climate change? Here's a list of scientific associations that believe global warming is largely caused by human activity. There are links to their official statements.
And how many of them are using faulty IPAA data that has been shown to be incorrect and manipulated?
But you can go and find out. Please do. You started this thread, if you want to make this kind of claim, you should take the time to research it and provide the answer. Don't use cheap propaganda techniques as a substitute for this kind of work.
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

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Bootstrap wrote: But hidden funding from the biggest polluters pays for most of the climate change denial literature, and that's even less trustworthy. One of the big things climate change deniers want is to eliminate the kind of independent research that is proving so valuable in pharmaceuticals.
And most of the money that is paying for the research that promotes human caused warming comes from politicians that want to tax and control more.

You ca choose to believe them. I choose to not. Whom do you trust? Those who are pushing global warming the most are those who plan to profit from it.
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

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Bootstrap wrote: But you can go and find out. Please do. You started this thread, if you want to make this kind of claim, you should take the time to research it and provide the answer. Don't use cheap propaganda techniques as a substitute for this kind of work.
I can make any claim I want. If I am wrong, so be it. I am not making policy. I am just stating my opinion. I grow tied of being told I can not have an opinion.

If you want to post pages of research. feel free. I want to just share things that I find problematic to those who plan to use this to profit from taxing more.
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

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Robert wrote:Again, we are warming. How can a slight raise in co2 cause massive warming when h2o does the same amount of greenhouse reflection and it is massive times higher then co2 levels? How come the earth had 24% co2 and it still had ice ages?

If the world has had much higher levels of co2 then present and humans were not around, could it be that the co2 level increase is not as tied to humanity?

Could it be ther the increase of co2 is actually a good thing? During the Jurassic the medium temperature was 10 degrees higher than now and there was 10x the amount of life on the planet.
To start with, what answers do mainstream scientists give on these questions? Each of your questions also involves some scientific claims. Which of these claims would mainstream scientists agree with, which would they disagree with, and which would they say they are not sure of? And why?
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Bootstrap
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

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Robert wrote:Those who are pushing global warming the most are those who plan to profit from it.
Really? And not the 90 companies responsible for 2/3 of global warming? Please provide evidence for your claim.

Suppose mainstream science is right on this. Don't you think the taxpayers wind up paying a lot more because we didn't ask the 90 biggest polluters to clean up after themselves?
Last edited by Bootstrap on Fri Feb 24, 2017 10:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

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Robert wrote:
Bootstrap wrote:But you can go and find out. Please do. You started this thread, if you want to make this kind of claim, you should take the time to research it and provide the answer. Don't use cheap propaganda techniques as a substitute for this kind of work.
I can make any claim I want. If I am wrong, so be it. I am not making policy. I am just stating my opinion. I grow tied of being told I can not have an opinion.
Sure. You can believe 2+2=73 if you want to. But if you post it in a way that implies this is fact, and then tell me about the evil motives of those who teach arithmetic in the public school, I'm likely to ask you to provide evidence for your claim.

If you make dogmatic claims, then get annoyed if someone asks you to provide the evidence, is it a useful thing to do?
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by ken_sylvania »

Bootstrap wrote:I'm guessing here, but I'd bet that studies on feed additives are largely funded by people who want to sell them, much as studies on pharmaceuticals are largely funded by the pharmaceutical industry. I certainly wouldn't trust any one study, and publication bias is a real problem, especially in studies funded by people who want to sell you something. So you really do want to see what protections there are against publication bias.
Many of these studies are funded by producers of feed additives, but many are also done by public universities. The federal government spends a boatload of money on ag programs and research every year. And lest I come across as discounting the value of these research programs, let me be clear that they have done a lot of good over the years.
Bootstrap wrote:And of course, even if one medicine is effective, taking two effective medicines may have a completely different result. There could be two different medicines that each effectively treat migraines, but if I take them both, it might result in a worse migraine or in death. For feed additives, maybe one would give you an additional $.20 per head per day, adding a second might bring you back to zero, adding a third might kill the animal, adding a fourth might bring it back to life ... who knows? You really have to study the combinations.
You are exactly right.

The thing with "predictive science" is that we really can't do a controlled experiment. I can research the properties of a particular element, including how it will react with other elements. We're trying to make an educated guess about what will happen if Co2 levels in the atmosphere rise, but we really don't know for sure. We don't have all the details about what caused previous warming and cooling cycles.
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

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Bootstrap wrote: If you make dogmatic claims, then get annoyed if someone asks you to provide the evidence, is it a useful thing to do?
And how can I trust you when you insinuate I am annoyed when I said I grow tired.

See, here is the challenge. Humans interpret things differently.

I have presented a lot of data from reputable scientists. You claim they can not be trusted. That is your opinion. I think their input should be considered.
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