Global Warning/Climate Change

Things that are not part of politics happening presently and how we approach or address it as Anabaptists.
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Bootstrap
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by Bootstrap »

Wayne in Maine wrote:I'm surprised this news item has not entered this discussion yet: Climate Models Run Too Hot
The paper was published September 18, 2017. Sometimes it takes longer than a week to absorb the latest science ;->
Wayne in Maine wrote:It makes one lose faith in consensus science.

I have not read the article from Nature Geoscience (it's rather expensive) but I'm looking forward to seeing some of the details on which they based their conclusion.
Read the article before losing faith in science. The authors of this study believe that the popular press has misinterpreted their findings, and issued this clarification:
A number of media reports have asserted that our recent study in Nature Geoscience indicates that global temperatures are not rising as fast as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and hence that action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is no longer urgent.

Both assertions are false.

Our results are entirely in line with the IPCC’s 2013 prediction that temperatures in the 2020s would be 0.9-1.3 degrees above pre-industrial (See figures 2c and 3a of our article which show the IPCC prediction, our projections, and temperatures of recent years).

What we have done is to update the implications for the amount of carbon dioxide we can still emit while expecting global temperatures to remain below the Paris Climate Agreement goal of 1.5 degrees. We find that, to likely meet the Paris goal, emission reductions would need to begin immediately and reach zero in less than 40 years’ time.

While that is not geophysically impossible, to suggest that this means that measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are now unnecessary is clearly false.
The authors do agree with the consensus statement on global warming, and they believe we need to take strong measures, but they are more optimistic than previously.

You can read the abstract of the Nature Geoscience article for free online: https://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vao ... o3031.html
Hence, limiting warming to 1.5 °C is not yet a geophysical impossibility, but is likely to require delivery on strengthened pledges for 2030 followed by challengingly deep and rapid mitigation. Strengthening near-term emissions reductions would hedge against a high climate response or subsequent reduction rates proving economically, technically or politically unfeasible.
Carbon Brief did an interview with the lead author on the day the study was released, you can read it here: https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post- ... ossibility
In a new paper, published in Nature Geoscience, we provide updated estimates of the remaining “carbon budget” for 1.5C. This is the total amount of CO2 emissions that we can still emit whilst limiting global average warming to 1.5C.

Our estimates suggest that we would have a remaining carbon budget equivalent to around 20 years at current emissions rates for a 2-in-3 chance of restricting end-of-century warming to below 1.5C.

This suggests that we have a little more breathing space than previously thought to achieve the 1.5C limit. However, although 1.5C is not yet a geophysical impossibility, it remains a very difficult policy challenge.
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MaxPC
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by MaxPC »

That's okay. According to David Meade the world is going to end tomorrow, September 23. :lol: :lol:
http://www.foxnews.com/science/2017/09/ ... claim.html

All I have to say is Maranatha!
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

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MaxPC wrote:That's okay. According to David Meade the world is going to end tomorrow, September 23. :lol: :lol:
Makes me sick. The locals Assemblies of God seem to really be thinking something is up with the Hurricanes, quakes, and eclipse.
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

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Image

What I want to focus on is the co2 levels over time.

What caused them to come down from over 20% of the atmosphere to the .04% today?

Cyanobacteria and plant life.

So why would they all the sudden stop their work of coverting co2 to o2 and sugars?

We have lots of algae and plants that still do this.
A team of researchers in the U.S. claims that climate models used to predict the rise in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are approximately 17 percent too high because they incorrectly approximate how much CO2 plants pull from the atmosphere. In their paper published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the team describes how they studied the ability of plants to absorb increased amounts of CO2 and discovered that they are capable of pulling more out of the atmosphere than has been previously thought and the difference is approximately equal to the error difference reported by simulation models.

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2014-10-co2-atmosphere.html#jCp
This article was from 2014. If plants will covert more co2, I suspect that algae will do the same. Since they were able to bring down the co2 levels from 20% to .04%, I suspect they can do far more, yet none of this is being considered by the IPCC. The continue with their overestimations. I wonder why? Maybe the Heritage Foundation is backing them because more co2 means more tobacco growth. What other reason would they not be following the science?
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

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Robert wrote:http://icecap.us/images/uploads/CO2600millionSPPI.jpg

What I want to focus on is the co2 levels over time.
I don't know who ICECAP is, how they are funded, or how they are measuring or plotting the things in that graph. Can you tell me how to know if this graph is reliable? Their "about" page does not say anything about who they are. The graph says little about how it was produced.

Better yet: can we agree on a reliable scientific source to use, something most scientists would trust? I'm pretty sure I trust NASA on this kind of issue, here is one of their overview pages:

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/

Here's the correlation since 2006, using direct measurements:
Screen Shot 2017-09-22 at 11.21.25 AM.png
Screen Shot 2017-09-22 at 11.21.25 AM.png (36.62 KiB) Viewed 409 times
So in recent memory, the correlation is really quite high.

Here are the C02 levels over the last three glacial cycles, using proxy measures based on ice core data:
Screen Shot 2017-09-22 at 11.20.54 AM.png
Screen Shot 2017-09-22 at 11.20.54 AM.png (95.31 KiB) Viewed 409 times
Obviously, C02 is not the only thing that affects the temperature of the planet, nobody is claiming that.
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

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KingdomBuilder wrote:
MaxPC wrote:That's okay. According to David Meade the world is going to end tomorrow, September 23. :lol: :lol:
Makes me sick. The locals Assemblies of God seem to really be thinking something is up with the Hurricanes, quakes, and eclipse.
You never know :lol:
Now Meade is saying he's changed his mind about the date. :mrgreen:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/22 ... laims.html
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

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Why do you keep using charts that ignore the massive amounts of co2 in the atmosphere in prehistory?

I used that one because it was the easiest to see the co2 levels. It has been reproduced from Paleoclimatologists who have come to a consensus about the amount of co2 in prehistory.

Image

Why do you doubt the consensus of Paleoclimatologists?
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

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Robert wrote:Why do you keep using charts that ignore the massive amounts of co2 in the atmosphere in prehistory?
Three reasons:

1. You can find graphs to prove anything you want somewhere on the Internet. It's not worth taking the time to prove or disprove information from sources that are not reliable in the first place, that would be more than a full-time job.
2. I don't think our current climate looks just like the prehistoric climate, and C02 is just one of many factors.
3. For current conditions, we have direct measurements. There's a lot of uncertainty and speculation when we try to reconstruct prehistory.

But I'll look into this chart, because I can link from it into the scientific literature:

Image

This chart seems to be from Wikipedia, and it has a description.
This figures shows estimates of the changes in carbon dioxide concentrations during the Phanerozoic. Three estimates are based on geochemical modeling: GEOCARB III (Berner and Kothavala 2001), Carbon-Oxygen-Phosphorus-Sulfur-Evolution COPSE (Bergmann et al. 2004) and Rothman (2001). These are compared to the carbon dioxide measurement database of Royer et al. (2004) and a 30 Myr filtered average of those data. Error envelopes are shown when they were available. The right hand scale shows the ratio of these measurements to the estimated average for the last several million years (the Quaternary). Customary labels for the periods of geologic time appear at the bottom.

Direct determination of past carbon dioxide levels relies primarily on the interpretation of carbon isotopic ratios in fossilized soils (paleosols) or the shells of phytoplankton and through interpretation of stomatal density in fossil plants. Each of these is subject to substantial systematic uncertainty.

Estimates of carbon dioxide changes through geochemical modeling instead rely on quantifying the geological sources and sinks for carbon dioxide over long time scales particularly: volcanic inputs, erosion and carbonate deposition. As such, these models are largely independent of direct measurements of carbon dioxide.

Both measurements and models show considerable uncertainty and variation; however, all point to carbon dioxide levels in the past that have been significantly higher than they are at present. While the GEOCARB Carbon dioxide levels in the most part of the Phanerozoic Eon shows a fit and resulting climate sensitivity similar to todays values, the early Phanerozoic includes a global ice age during the Ordovician age combined with high atmospheric carbon contents based on the same project. There have been different speculations about the reasons but no acknowledged mechanism so far.
OK, that tells me where to look for the scientific literature on this. I'm pretty sure the answer is basically this: if you go far enough back in time, a lot more is changing than just C02, and C02 is not the only driver of global temperature. It's just the one that is most rapidly changing our climate right now. But I'll take a look at this when I get time and try to understand what the authors of those articles said if they are available online or if they have written summaries that are available online.
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

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MaxPC wrote:You never know :lol:
Now Meade is saying he's changed his mind about the date. :mrgreen:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/22 ... laims.html
I do know that they do not know ;) :)
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by MaxPC »

KingdomBuilder wrote:
MaxPC wrote:You never know :lol:
Now Meade is saying he's changed his mind about the date. :mrgreen:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/22 ... laims.html
I do know that they do not know ;) :)
Precisely!!
:lol:
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1 Corinthians 3:19 For the wisdom of this world is folly with God
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