Global Warning/Climate Change

Things that are not part of politics happening presently and how we approach or address it as Anabaptists.
GaryK
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by GaryK »

Bootstrap wrote:
GaryK wrote:My point is (and I think you understand it) that if this is more than a scientific subject then it should be allowed to be discussed as more than a scientific subject.
Sure.

Think we could have a thread with 57 pages on how we, as Christians, should approach living simply? Or what our relationship to the environment is? Or 57 pages on how we relate to expert opinion that we don't really understand? We could certainly use 57 pages on Internet literacy.

I think it would be helpful to change roles here and ask how we should act as Christians, not pretend to be better scientists than the scientists.
I haven't taken what has been shared in the 57 pages as pretending to be better scientists than the scientists. I've taken it as a thread to prove that this is more than a scientific subject. Just because you see it differently doesn't make your approach to this subject a better approach IMO.

No one is keeping you from starting threads on how we should act as Christians and no one is forcing you to keep on responding to this thread.
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Bootstrap
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by Bootstrap »

GaryK wrote:I haven't taken what has been shared in the 57 pages as pretending to be better scientists than the scientists. I've taken it as a thread to prove that this is more than a scientific subject.
What do you think the thread has said about this being more than a scientific subject? You use the word "prove", what has it proven about it being more than a scientific subject?
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RZehr
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by RZehr »

It's now 58 pages. :lol:
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GaryK
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by GaryK »

Bootstrap wrote:
GaryK wrote:I haven't taken what has been shared in the 57 pages as pretending to be better scientists than the scientists. I've taken it as a thread to prove that this is more than a scientific subject.
What do you think the thread has said about this being more than a scientific subject? You use the word "prove", what has it proven about it being more than a scientific subject?
The very thread itself seems to have proven that it's more than just a scientific discussion not only on MN but elsewhere as well, based on some of the links that have been provided.
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lesterb
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by lesterb »

Bootstrap wrote: People like John Cook are trying to dumb this down with simpler, black-and-white statements. That seems to be what popular culture prefers. Most people prefer a simple, vivid statement that requires no work to understand, so this often turns into a fight among Internet memes.
I don't know anything about John Cook, but I do react a bit to this idea that simple statements or generalizations are the result of "dumbing down" a subject. I find generalizations and simple statements to be very helpful in communication with people who don't have the time or the expertise to get into every detail. But it isn't a dumbing down process. It takes a lot of study and thinking to come up with good generalizations. You probably need to understand more about the subject to do that than to write the complex statements that fill this thread.

I remember about a decade ago when these things really started to hit the Mennonite circles and the grassroots of society. The debate then was whether or not global warming even exists. Back in the MD days, I remember sharing observations that I had made that made it evident that global warming did exist, but some people tried to insist that it didn't. Now that has shifted and I don't hear it anymore. Now the battle is centered on the cause of global warming. And most people recognize that human activity is at least partly to blame. The big question is, what percentage of it are we to blame for it? And what does stewardship ask us to do about it.

Again, my approach to the whole subject is somewhat different. I look at history and see the same processes at work a thousand years ago. The earth survived, and it appears that it was a natural process rather than a man-made one. Nature goes through cycles. We don't know enough about history to track it all, but we get enough glimpses to see that nature is pretty versatile. On top of this, I'm not surprised to see "the earth waxing old as a garment", since the Bible forecast that a long time ago. But that doesn't keep me from agreeing that we should do what we can.

But I know enough about computers and their problems to look at computer models with a bit of a cynical eye. And most of these scenarios we are talking about are based on computer models tied into statistics. But anyone acquainted with spreadsheet analysis knows who much that the programmer has to do with the outcome. It doesn't take much to tweak results.

Now the Lord may not return for another millennium or two. Or he may return today. But if He does wait a couple of thousand years, I predict that we are heading into another dark ages. If you look at history, you see those cycles going along with the natural cycles. I think we are pretty naive if we think that we can head off cycles that God seems to have reprogrammed into nature and human experience. We have gotten so used to being the masters of our destiny on earth that we think we can do anything.

Well I've got news for you. We can't. Read the last chapters of Job and you will get a glimpse of what God is thinking right now about discussions like this thread.

I had a call yesterday from a woman half a continent away. She has a baby with a serious heart condition. She was a backslidden Christian until a year or so ago, and she is horribly afraid that God is punishing her through her baby. I've talked with her several time over the past six months and tried to help her to find her rest in God. Yesterday, I think she finally got a bit closer to realizing that while God may be using her baby's condition to help her, he is not punishing her. She has been desperately trying to find a way to have her baby healed. But she is starting to see that she can find rest by accepting that God is a good God and what he allows is good for us, even if it seems hard.

I think we need to come to that kind of rest in this subject. Certainly that doesn't mean being careless or nonchalant. But I get the impression that Boot thinks that the whole fate of the world rests on his shoulders. And Robert seems to feel that he needs to somehow bring Boot around. And so they keep shooting past each other.

We won't solve this, because it isn't our problem to solve. Even if you got China and India on board, we wouldn't stop what seems to be a natural process. We might be able to moderate it a bit, but without killing two thirds of the world's population we won't even be able to do much of this. A good part of man's part in this is simply the overhead of life in general. If God tarries, this will pass too. Politicians will move on to the next great nonevent and people will start predicting an ice again when the world starts cooling on its own several centuries from now.

By then, I hope that we can all be discussing this in heaven and chuckling at our over reactions.

In the meantime, do your best to be a good stewart, avoid waste and over using natural resources. And tell people about Jesus, because that is more important than saving a doomed planet.
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lesterb
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by lesterb »

Bump!

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Robert
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by Robert »

lesterb wrote:And Robert seems to feel that he needs to somehow bring Boot around.
Nope, while I agree with much of the rest of what you posted. Yea, I know I ended that with a prepositional phrase. That is just me. I don't always accept the status quo. I like Cryptozoology too. While I doubt much of that is speculated on, I love to watch and see the madness. I know in there somewhere is something unknown.

There are days I spend hours and hours reading and watching summations from various people on climate. There are days I spend hours building something around the house. There is really no need to post the links on climate change I do. I only started teasing Bootstrap about it because of the history of MD and his seeming obsession with refuting anything I posted. I would keep posting them even if he never responded again.

If the world was claiming Eugenics was correct, I would be posting arguments on that. If science starts making other bold claims that I disagree with, I will be posting sources that are counter to their belief. I know enough about the underbelly of the scientific culture to know that they are not as pristine as they try to project themselves. Some of their "data" is built on a house of cards and I watch it fall often, ie Dark Matter/Dark Energy. Over time, they finally start getting things closer to what is. Climate change science is in it's infancy. There is so much to learn. Deciding now we know is like electing a kindergardener as president of the country. I would not want a 5 year old deciding policy. They would call for sand boxes and lots of puppies in every house. We need to let the science mature more. While it can give us some insights, the science is still a guess. It is easy to see that on the bad record of predictions matching actual conditions. Then you get a whole other level of politics on top of the science. This is what I really push back against. When science becomes a religion, I know that there is something wrong.

So I doubt. I do not accept blindly what is being stated on climate chance. I do trust that there is a lot of science that is trustworthy. I suspect there are some areas that climatologists are getting it right also. It is not an absolute yes or no for me. I think there are some things to watch for. I also think some is totally out of our hands and natural. I also know that technology will make a bigger effect going forward then abstinence.

My whole point is that we should be wary whenever science is moved into a religious ferver. We can trust a lot of the data, but we have to remember that scientists are human too, for now. They also bring their own humanity to their work. Sometimes that is a good thing. Other times, that can be a negative thing. Research is often funded through grants. This can taint what scientists do because, like the rest of us, they have to follow the money to eat too.
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temporal1
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by temporal1 »

lesterb wrote:Bump!
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cute cartoon.
“Bump!” is right. IRL, those first wanting the chocolates TAKE THEM, while demanding others leave them alone. the classic, “do as i say, don’t do as i do.”
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Most or all of this drama, humiliation, wasted taxpayer money could be spared -
with even modest attempt at presenting balanced facts from the start.


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Bootstrap
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by Bootstrap »

Robert wrote:My whole point is that we should be wary whenever science is moved into a religious fervor. We can trust a lot of the data, but we have to remember that scientists are human too, for now.
I agree with that. On both sides of the debate.

But I do think that mainstream science is about as convinced about climate change as it is about lung cancer. Sure, there are some scientists who question the link between tobacco smoking and lung cancer, but nobody would say that most real scientists do not believe there is a link between the two. And it's quite possible that mainstream scientists are mistaken about either.

But that's a debate that should be done on the basis of data. And that can get technical. As I mentioned in an earlier post ...
Bootstrap wrote:Here's something that troubles me on both the extreme right and the extreme left: there is often an attitude that "we" are the people who know the truth, "they" are just victims of groupthink, "they" are distorting science in pursuit of their own opinions, etc. It is no longer a question of facts, it's tribal groupthink on both sides. It's people willingly buying into propaganda instead of careful pursuit of facts. And the main solution I see is to remind ourselves constantly that facts exist and we can look at them, carefully, together.

But that's best done by leaning on sources that scientists would accept as reliable. There is just so much hogwash on the Internet that there is no value in discussing every graphic or website that confirms a particular opinion. And because the time and expertise required to do this well is enormous, for most of us, this is something we can do best by reading summaries that the scientific community provides for us. The alternative is to really get down into the weeds. For instance, John Christy claims that the scientific community, as a whole, overstates global warming. The basis for his claim is satellite temperatures. There are two main scientific groups working with satellite temperatures, the Huntsville group and the RSS group, and they disagree. Their disagreement centers on how this data is interpreted - neither group "simply measures" the temperature, they each apply the same corrections, but they disagree on exactly how to do that. The RSS results largely agree with the other measures we have of warming, the Huntsville results say global warming is much less than that. So who is right? That depends on some very technical things like the right value of the NOAA-9 variable used in the correction formula. And even having that discussion requires a level of depth that is probably not going to happen on MN. Even if we were capable of it, it would drive everyone else nuts.

But if you are curious, here is a paper written by members of both groups, explaining where they differ on interpreting satellite data: Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere - Understanding and Reconciling Differences. Christy leads the Huntsville group, Mears leads the RSS group. One particularly important part is this section: "What measures can be taken to improve the understanding of observed changes?" This is how science should work - get the people who disagree together in one room, make them look carefully at the data and think about what it would take to come up with answers both would accept as reliable.
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JimFoxvog
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by JimFoxvog »

temporal1 wrote: IRL, those first wanting the chocolates TAKE THEM, while demanding others leave them alone. the classic, “do as i say, don’t do as i do.”
I don't understand. The US is about the only nation now not agreeing to the Paris climate change agreement. The rest of the world outside the US has added more than their share of CO2 to the atmosphere and the US hasn't?
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