Global Warning/Climate Change

Things that are not part of politics happening presently and how we approach or address it as Anabaptists.
Hats Off
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by Hats Off »

I heard today from a non scientific source that some river in Florida stayed at the level it reached during the last storm which is 6 feet above what was considered normal before. The source contended that the same thing is happening to our local river (we had some major flooding in the spring) until I told him that there are twenty some electricity generating dams between where the river starts out and where it empties.
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Robert
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by Robert »

https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-p ... 0-11186098
A mini ice age that would freeze major rivers could hit Britain in less than two decades, according to research from universities in the UK and Russia.

A mathematical model of the Sun's magnetic activity suggests temperatures could start dropping here from 2021, with the potential for winter skating on the River Thames by 2030.
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Bootstrap
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by Bootstrap »

Robert wrote:https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-p ... 0-11186098
A mini ice age that would freeze major rivers could hit Britain in less than two decades, according to research from universities in the UK and Russia.

A mathematical model of the Sun's magnetic activity suggests temperatures could start dropping here from 2021, with the potential for winter skating on the River Thames by 2030.
A little media literacy - note that this doesn't point to the research or say when it was done. As it happens, this is the same Valentina Zharkova paper we discussed years earlier, and some of the media really mangled the facts when they reported it back then. This seems to repeat the same mangled facts without looking at the paper or thinking about what it says.

Here's a good overview:

No, we aren’t heading into a ‘mini ice age’
This month there’s been a hoopla about a mini ice age, and unfortunately it tells us more about failures of science communication than the climate. Such failures can maintain the illusion of doubt and uncertainty, even when there’s a scientific consensus that the world is warming.

The story starts benignly with a peer-reviewed paper and a presentation in early July by Professor Valentina Zharkova, from Northumbria University, at Britain’s National Astronomy Meeting.

The paper presents a model for the sun’s magnetic field and sunspots, which predicts a 60% fall in sunspot numbers when extrapolated to the 2030s. Crucially, the paper makes no mention of climate.

The first failure of science communication is present in the Royal Astronomical Society press release from July 9. It says that “solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s” without clarifying that this “solar activity” refers to a fall in the number of sunspots, not a dramatic fall in the life-sustaining light emitted by the sun.

The press release also omits crucial details. It does say that the drop in sunspots may resemble the Maunder minimum, a 17th century lull in solar activity, and includes a link to the Wikipedia article on the subject. The press release also notes that the Maunder minimum coincided with a mini ice age.

But that mini ice age began before the Maunder minimum and may have had multiple causes, including volcanism.

Crucially, the press release doesn’t say what the implications of a future Maunder minimum are for climate.
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Bootstrap
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by Bootstrap »

The SkepticalScience site also has a useful discussion on this, and looks at the impact in temperatures that Valentina Zharkova's data would predict.

No, the sun isn't going to save us from global warming

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Robert
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

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http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Study ... d_999.html
But if Zharokova wanted to distance herself from dubious climatic predictions, she hasn't helped her cause. She recently went on record questioning the consensus of anthropogenic global warming. She believes the sun's fluctuating output plays a greater role in influencing temperature than does the greenhouse gas effect.

"I am not convinced with the arguments of the group promoting global warming of an anthropogenic nature," Zharkova told The Washington Post.

For this reason and others, Zharkova predicts a reduction in solar radiation to precipitate a drop in global temperatures, similar to the last mini ice age, or Maunder Minimum, that hit Earth in the mid-1700s and caused several decades of harsh winters in the Western Hemisphere.
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appleman2006
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by appleman2006 »

Hats Off wrote:I heard today from a non scientific source that some river in Florida stayed at the level it reached during the last storm which is 6 feet above what was considered normal before. The source contended that the same thing is happening to our local river (we had some major flooding in the spring) until I told him that there are twenty some electricity generating dams between where the river starts out and where it empties.
"Six feet of water above what was considered normal" in Florida? That really is funny. The guy has obviously never been there. To get most rivers up six feet you would need to flood most of the state I think.
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gcdonner
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by gcdonner »

Bootstrap wrote:Wow.

When I read the IPCC documents, they are mostly saying we need to find better ways to produce energy with a lower C02 cost. Fracking and nuclear are two ways of doing that. I think pretty much everyone assumes that we are going to continue to consume energy and that the energy consumption of the third world will continue to increase.

The IPCC documents don't say that cows are the main issue.

It's easy to make up strawmen. It's easy to mock. Are these useful things to do? Do they help us understand? Do we look more Christlike when we do this? I've seen people mocking stereotypes of the other side of the argument too. You wouldn't like that. I don't either.
Strawmen are easier to target since they don't move a lot...
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MaxPC
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by MaxPC »

appleman2006 wrote: "Six feet of water above what was considered normal" in Florida? That really is funny. The guy has obviously never been there. To get most rivers up six feet you would need to flood most of the state I think.
Close. Our friends in FL say that ground saturation doesn't last long. Nearly the entire state sits on limestone riddled with caves and sinkholes. The soil is essentially sand. Drainage is not an issue. If a river is up and I do mean IF, it recedes quickly. The only other cause might be a failed dam somewhere.
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gcdonner
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by gcdonner »

We could use some global warming here in MN right now. -15° this morning and expecting down to -20° on New Years Day.
Hug a stove today...
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Bootstrap
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Post by Bootstrap »

!!! SNIP !!!
For this reason and others, Zharkova predicts a reduction in solar radiation to precipitate a drop in global temperatures, similar to the last mini ice age, or Maunder Minimum, that hit Earth in the mid-1700s and caused several decades of harsh winters in the Western Hemisphere.
Reading the article, I couldn't tell what "this reason" means there, or what the other reasons are. The article itself emphasizes that:
  • Zharkova did not publish her findings in a peer-reviewed journal
  • Her original paper did not endorse a mini-ice age. "In fairness, Zharokova's study didn't directly predict a miniature ice age. Her work focuses on solar activity."
  • Few scientists seem to agree with her. "Zharokova is mostly isolated in her conclusions on the sun's climatic effects, then and now."
Two quotes from the article:
Recent studies suggest a slowdown in solar radiation will have a minimal effect on upward-trending global temperatures.

"Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming," scientists concluded in a recent study published in the journal Nature.

"The effect is a drop in the bucket, a barely detectable blip, on the overall warming trajectory we can expect over the next several decades from greenhouse warming," Michael Mann, professor of meteorology at Pennsylvania State University, told The Washington Post.

Furthermore, a number of recent studies suggest the so-called Little Ice Age was, as its name suggests, quite small in size and stature -- resulting in only small temperature reductions isolated to Europe. It was also, scientists say, mostly the result of an uptick in volcanic activity, which spewed sun-blocking gas and ash into the atmosphere.
The conclusion focuses on the issue of megaphones given to those making unfounded claims:
One of the struggles for scientists, research universities, scientific journals and the organizations that support them, is the balance act between drawing attention to important but underfunded work and ensuring megaphones aren't given to those making unfounded claims.
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