Global Warning/Climate Change

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Robert
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Postby Robert » Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:46 pm

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Robert
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Postby Robert » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:39 pm

Seems co2 effects have been overestimated by 50%. Even the IPCC has faced it and are adjusting.

https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3031

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One of the comments from this video:
Michael Wendt
1 month ago
I majored in physics. We studied gas solubility in water. Turns out 32 degree F water holds the most dissolved gas. As the water warms, it releases ever greater amounts of the dissolved gas to the atmosphere. Conclusion: CO2 levels during ice ages were low because the oceans absorbed and retained more CO2. As the sun heated up, the oceans warmed and released the CO2 back into the atmosphere. Saying CO2 caused the warming is akin to saying a fever causes illness. In both cases, we are viewing a symptom!
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Bootstrap
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Postby Bootstrap » Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:47 pm

Robert wrote:Seems co2 effects have been overestimated by 50%. Even the IPCC has faced it and are adjusting.

https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3031


SInce this is from a scientific publication, I'll respond to this. (I'm trying to avoid responding to scientific-sounding claims from sensational sources and random opinions from the internet. Garbage in, garbage out.)

This article doesn't seem to say what you imply it says, and is not consistent with the other things you cite here. Here's the money quote from this article:

Assuming emissions peak and decline to below current levels by 2030, and continue thereafter on a much steeper decline, which would be historically unprecedented but consistent with a standard ambitious mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), results in a likely range of peak warming of 1.2–2.0 °C above the mid-nineteenth century.


Hence, limiting warming to 1.5 °C is not yet a geophysical impossibility, but is likely to require delivery on strengthened pledges for 2030 followed by challengingly deep and rapid mitigation.


In other words, we have to make significant changes, but if we do, we can limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. I think that's pretty much what most of the scientific community is telling us, and is based on data in the latest IPCC report.
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Robert
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Postby Robert » Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:06 pm

Bootstrap wrote:In other words, we have to make significant changes, but if we do, we can limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. I think that's pretty much what most of the scientific community is telling us, and is based on data in the latest IPCC report.


Why is limiting warming important? How does it hurt overall?
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Wayne in Maine
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Postby Wayne in Maine » Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:00 pm

Robert wrote:
Bootstrap wrote:In other words, we have to make significant changes, but if we do, we can limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. I think that's pretty much what most of the scientific community is telling us, and is based on data in the latest IPCC report.


Why is limiting warming important? How does it hurt overall?

I've been asking myself a similar question. In the greater scope of things, the earth is just recovering from an ice age. In terms of geological time we are in a historically brief low temperature/low CO2 period. Similarly, because of the increase in atmospheric CO2 over the past few decades, the earth is greener, arid regions are conserving water and becoming greener. The earth is getting healthier. Cold is death, CO2 deficiency is disastrous to the ecosystem. These are all measured facts. Most global climate change disaster scenarios or speculation based on creative models.
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Postby Bootstrap » Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:04 pm

Wayne in Maine wrote:
Robert wrote:Why is limiting warming important? How does it hurt overall?

I've been asking myself a similar question. In the greater scope of things, the earth is just recovering from an ice age. In terms of geological time we are in a historically brief low temperature/low CO2 period. Similarly, because of the increase in atmospheric CO2 over the past few decades, the earth is greener, arid regions are conserving water and becoming greener. The earth is getting healthier. Cold is death, CO2 deficiency is disastrous to the ecosystem. These are all measured facts. Most global climate change disaster scenarios or speculation based on creative models.


I think the simple answer is that civilization as we know it developed during the brief period of time we call recorded history. Our civilization was built for a fairly narrow range of climate conditions, and big changes to climate will have big impacts on some of the places we live.

Let's ignore the scary speculative stuff on both sides and focus on what mainstream science is telling us. I'll look for a reliable bullet point list to keep it short, I'm looking for an authoritative source for this, the IPCC summaries can sometimes be wordy.

But I think the most creative models are the ones scientists dismiss, not the ones they agree on.
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Postby Robert » Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:11 pm

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We are 10 degree C lower in global temperature now then what is often normal for the planet. During these high temperature times, life was very abundant.
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ken_sylvania
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Postby ken_sylvania » Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:27 pm

Robert wrote:We are 10 degree C lower in global temperature now then what is often normal for the planet. During these high temperature times, life was very abundant.

I would guess that the people who put that chart together don't believe that humans thrived during those high temperature periods.
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Robert
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Postby Robert » Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:05 pm

ken_sylvania wrote:I would guess that the people who put that chart together don't believe that humans thrived during those high temperature periods.


Well, humans did not appear until the last 50,000 years or so, according the evolutionary theory..
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Re: Global Warning/Climate Change

Postby Bootstrap » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:44 am

Robert wrote:
ken_sylvania wrote:I would guess that the people who put that chart together don't believe that humans thrived during those high temperature periods.


Well, humans did not appear until the last 50,000 years or so, according the evolutionary theory..


Whether or not you believe in evolution, the world's major cities are mainly on the coastlines. When a few hurricanes wipe out Puerto Rico and damage a few American cities, we think of that as a significant tragedy, even if it does not wipe out all life as we know it. We don't say that this is no big deal because there have been other storms in history.

There's no such thing as a free lunch. If we ignore what scientists are telling us now, we will pay for it later. If we save money by ignoring it now, we pass that debt on to our children in the form of climate change. And it will cost them.
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