General Population Decline/Amish Population Bomb

[Ken]

Exactly why do you think Amish want to move into cities?

And why do you think they’d buy pre-built houses?

My point exactly. I don't think conservative Amish will migrate in mass to the cities. Amish culture is fundamentally rural. The separate language, form of worship, rejection of technology, and insular community lifestyle is inherently rural and won't translate well to urban life. And if they do they won't long remain Amish. It is exactly the opposite of Hasidic Jewish society which is inherently urban and has been for many centuries. Diaspora Jews settled in urban "ghettos" in central and eastern Europe for many centuries, and continued this urban lifestyle when they migrated to places like Brooklyn, and back to Jerusalem. Hasidic Jews are no more going to be successful wheat farmers in Kansas than Amish are going to be successful diamond merchants in Brooklyn. They are opposite cultural skill sets.

That was my point about carrying capacity. Amish culture is inherently rural and will run into natural geographic boundaries as it expands. Amish society will not take over the United States because they simply don't have the room to do so. There is only so much available land that is conducive to Amish life. And like every other culture, they will reach some equilibrium where their population stops expanding. Just like every other distinct human society and every biological population for that matter. What that equilibrium level is I have no idea. But I suspect it isn't tremendously high.

[Josh]

Exactly why do you think Amish want to move into cities?

And why do you think they’d buy pre-built houses?

My point exactly. I don't think conservative Amish will migrate in mass to the cities. Amish culture is fundamentally rural. The separate language, form of worship, rejection of technology, and insular community lifestyle is inherently rural and won't translate well to urban life. And if they do they won't long remain Amish. It is exactly the opposite of Hasidic Jewish society which is inherently urban and has been for many centuries. Diaspora Jews settled in urban "ghettos" in central and eastern Europe for many centuries, and continued this urban lifestyle when they migrated to places like Brooklyn, and back to Jerusalem. Hasidic Jews are no more going to be successful wheat farmers in Kansas than Amish are going to be successful diamond merchants in Brooklyn. They are opposite cultural skill sets.

That was my point about carrying capacity. Amish culture is inherently rural and will run into natural geographic boundaries as it expands. Amish society will not take over the United States because they simply don't have the room to do so. There is only so much available land that is conducive to Amish life. And like every other culture, they will reach some equilibrium where their population stops expanding. Just like every other distinct human society and every biological population for that matter. What that equilibrium level is I have no idea. But I suspect it isn't tremendously high.

You’re missing the point.

You and your kind are going to go extinct and will be replaced. This is simply the reality for any group of people who have a birth rate below replacement rate.

Groups that have a birth rate above replacement rate will displace and replace everyone else. And yes, the U.S. has an absolutely huge carrying capacity for people who live an Amish lifestyle - far more than can be supported with urban development patterns. Old Order life is much more self sufficient and sustainable.

Ohio alone has 26 million acres, virtually all of it arable. An Amish family can easily sustain themselves in 5 acres (although they like to own more land, many own less than that). That would be 5.2 million Amish FAMILIES in Ohio alone, which is more than Ohio’s current population, urban areas and all.

And that may be the best hope for an urban population that is getting sicker, fatter, and older; Amish people would grow necessary food and have a proven track record of excellent agricultural productivity including directly marketing it to urban consumers in Ohio’s cities.

You’re also incorrect about Israeli ultra-orthodox communities who do not live in “ghettoes” nor are urbanised. They live in their own communities rather far away from the rest of urban Israeli cities.

[Ken]

Exactly why do you think Amish want to move into cities?

And why do you think they’d buy pre-built houses?

My point exactly. I don't think conservative Amish will migrate in mass to the cities. Amish culture is fundamentally rural. The separate language, form of worship, rejection of technology, and insular community lifestyle is inherently rural and won't translate well to urban life. And if they do they won't long remain Amish. It is exactly the opposite of Hasidic Jewish society which is inherently urban and has been for many centuries. Diaspora Jews settled in urban "ghettos" in central and eastern Europe for many centuries, and continued this urban lifestyle when they migrated to places like Brooklyn, and back to Jerusalem. Hasidic Jews are no more going to be successful wheat farmers in Kansas than Amish are going to be successful diamond merchants in Brooklyn. They are opposite cultural skill sets.

That was my point about carrying capacity. Amish culture is inherently rural and will run into natural geographic boundaries as it expands. Amish society will not take over the United States because they simply don't have the room to do so. There is only so much available land that is conducive to Amish life. And like every other culture, they will reach some equilibrium where their population stops expanding. Just like every other distinct human society and every biological population for that matter. What that equilibrium level is I have no idea. But I suspect it isn't tremendously high.

You’re missing the point.

You and your kind are going to go extinct and will be replaced. This is simply the reality for any group of people who have a birth rate below replacement rate.

Groups that have a birth rate above replacement rate will displace and replace everyone else. And yes, the U.S. has an absolutely huge carrying capacity for people who live an Amish lifestyle - far more than can be supported with urban development patterns. Old Order life is much more self sufficient and sustainable.

Ohio alone has 26 million acres, virtually all of it arable. An Amish family can easily sustain themselves in 5 acres (although they like to own more land, many own less than that). That would be 5.2 million Amish FAMILIES in Ohio alone, which is more than Ohio’s current population, urban areas and all.

And that may be the best hope for an urban population that is getting sicker, fatter, and older; Amish people would grow necessary food and have a proven track record of excellent agricultural productivity including directly marketing it to urban consumers in Ohio’s cities.

You’re also incorrect about Israeli ultra-orthodox communities who do not live in “ghettoes” nor are urbanised. They live in their own communities rather far away from the rest of urban Israeli cities.

Me and my kind are going extinct? My family is half Hispanic. All my kids have Hispanic names and are bilingual. They travel back and forth to South America on their own. There are 62.5 MILLION Hispanics in the United States which makes the US the second largest Hispanic country in the world after Mexico. By contrast there are about 360,000 Amish of all kinds in the US which is about equivalent to the metro population of Lincoln Nebraska or Fort Collins, CO. I hardly think we are in danger of going extinct or being driven out of our lands by the Amish any time soon.

[Josh]

Me and my kind are going extinct? My family is half Hispanic. All my kids have Hispanic names and are bilingual. They travel back and forth to South America on their own. There are 62.5 MILLION Hispanics in the United States which makes the US the second largest Hispanic country in the world after Mexico. By contrast there are about 360,000 Amish of all kinds in the US which is about equivalent to the metro population of Lincoln Nebraska or Fort Collins, CO. I hardly think we are in danger of going extinct or being driven out of our lands by the Amish any time soon.

By you and your kind, I am referring to the kind of upper-middle-class suburbanised type of person. And you aren't Hispanic (unless I've misunderstood something), either, although Hispanic birthrates are below replacement level both in Latin America and in the U.S. now.

How many children are you encouraging your children to have? Or are you encouraging them to go and get lots of advanced degrees first?

I never said anything about being "driven from your lands"; instead, I am pointing out that if you choose to live a life where you have on average 1.4 children, you'll go extinct because you will simply cease to exist. You talk a lot about how important education is, which is the single largest determinant of small family sizes, so if you're encouraging your daughters to go get a college degree, it's very likely your family line will die out.

[Soloist]

Its interesting that one can both advocate that we need to witness in the city and then be forthright about our inability to raise a large family in the city. Both points I would agree with ironically.

Although, I have read a few articles over the years about some abandoned area's in cities being converted to farmland...

[Josh]

Its interesting that one can both advocate that we need to witness in the city and then be forthright about our inability to raise a large family in the city. Both points I would agree with ironically.

Although, I have read a few articles over the years about some abandoned area's in cities being converted to farmland...

We need to witness in prisons but we shouldn’t raise a family in a prison.

My denomination and other plain groups have churches and missions in cities. Most converts move to an established, rural congregation after a few years. They say the quality of life is simply so much better. You can read Maxo Boursiquet’s book, “A Resident Alien in Search of a Home” for a first hand account of one of these migrations.

In third world countries our churches are basically all in villages. Is that rural or a “city”?

Some friends of mine have a plain Anabaptists Christian community (like Hutterites) on the edge of a rust belt city, next to the worst part of town. They have bought up land and turned it into hay or other crops, such as a 5 acre plot they bought from the school board right in the middle of the city. The school board didn’t need it because population has dropped so much, they can barely upkeep their exisiting schools.

One challenge for new converts is getting them away from a wicked city influence from their old friends. Yet sometimes those friendships are important for evangelising from a new convert.

[nett]

The Amish are good at tearing down unused infrastructure, and putting land to better use. Hooverites especially consider themselves to be able to resurrect bad soil with their no-combustion-engine farming techniques that center around horses and intensive frolic-style labor.

If you unleashed a few hundred Hooverites on 1000 acres in an abandoned city, I suspect it would be rural in 5-10 years. They really do have some incredible capabilities.

[Ken]

The Amish are good at tearing down unused infrastructure, and putting land to better use. Hooverites especially consider themselves to be able to resurrect bad soil with their no-combustion-engine farming techniques that center around horses and intensive frolic-style labor.

If you unleashed a few hundred Hooverites on 1000 acres in an abandoned city, I suspect it would be rural in 5-10 years. They really do have some incredible capabilities.

Probably so. Maybe the Amish should look at abandoned industrial and residential land in places like Detroit. That would be interesting to see Amish farms in the middle of the city.

[Josh]

The Amish are good at tearing down unused infrastructure, and putting land to better use. Hooverites especially consider themselves to be able to resurrect bad soil with their no-combustion-engine farming techniques that center around horses and intensive frolic-style labor.

If you unleashed a few hundred Hooverites on 1000 acres in an abandoned city, I suspect it would be rural in 5-10 years. They really do have some incredible capabilities.

Probably so. Maybe the Amish should look at abandoned industrial and residential land in places like Detroit. That would be interesting to see Amish farms in the middle of the city.

Detroit is hardly abandoned, although if present trends continue eventually it will be. There is already someone who took a bunch of vacant city blocks and started raising goats on them.

[Ken]

The Amish are good at tearing down unused infrastructure, and putting land to better use. Hooverites especially consider themselves to be able to resurrect bad soil with their no-combustion-engine farming techniques that center around horses and intensive frolic-style labor.

If you unleashed a few hundred Hooverites on 1000 acres in an abandoned city, I suspect it would be rural in 5-10 years. They really do have some incredible capabilities.

Probably so. Maybe the Amish should look at abandoned industrial and residential land in places like Detroit. That would be interesting to see Amish farms in the middle of the city.

Detroit is hardly abandoned, although if present trends continue eventually it will be. There is already someone who took a bunch of vacant city blocks and started raising goats on them.

I didn't say Detroit was abandoned. I said there was abandoned industrial and residential land in places like Detroit. Detroit has an estimate 40 square miles of abandoned land. Some of it is already being converted back to agriculture and green spaces. People are already doing urban farming on abandoned land within Detroit. But the majority of it is just weed-filled vacant space. It would be interesting to see the Amish getting involved in some of that if they are such experts in small-scale sustainable agriculture and making the most of smaller spaces: https://www.brightgreenfuture.com/brigh ... in-detroit

It would seem like the perfect niche for the Amish to get involved since those sorts of small piecemeal plots are not conducive to large-scale mechanized agriculture anyway.