General Population Decline/Amish Population Bomb

[HondurasKeiser]

Scott Alexander, formerly of the Slate Star Codex blog and now writing at Astral Codex Ten, has an interesting and even-handed take on all of the “house-on-fire” predictions about the world’s looming population implosion. His conclusion is that while there are some things to be concerned about, by 2100 the growth rate will drop to near-zero for instance, nevertheless the absolute population totals for all countries will either be greater than they are today or still higher than they were in 1900.

I put this in the humor category for his final prediction which I’ll quote in full:

Appendix: The Amish Inversion

Suppose that there is a 2100 - and even a 2200, 2300, etc. What happens if we extend current trends?

Answer: the Amish take over the world.

The Amish have about seven children per family. Their population doubles every twenty years. This has been very consistent; the Amish never change. Relatively few Amish “defect” to regular modern society. As regular American birth rates get lower, the percent of the American population who are Amish rises.

The Daily Caller has an article on how the Amish [Are] Projected To Overtake Current US Population In 215 Years If Growth Rates Continue. It predicts Amish-non-Amish parity around 2250:

By 2303, 332 million Amish people will live in the United States if the Amish growth rate of doubling every 21-22 years continues. (Data from Elizabethtown College)
But in fact, the Amish will not quite be a majority of Americans in 2250, because Orthodox Jews have only-slightly-slower growth rates.

Assume that regular US population stabilizes at 430 million in 2100. By 2250, the population is 430 million regulars, 450 million Amish, and 100 million Orthodox Jews, for a total of about a billion people.

Even this isn’t quite right, because a lot of Orthodox Jews do leave Orthodoxy, so along with those 100 million devout Orthodox there will probably be a few dozen million extra Reform Jews with a confused relationship to religion and lots of emotional baggage. It’ll be a great time for the rationalist community.

So that’s a comfort.

[Josh]

Going into a bit more detail, it is actually the Swartzentrubers, Stauffers ("Pikers" or "Team mennonites"), Hoover Mennonites, and other similar groups who will take over the world, since they have a TFR of 9.0, compared to the rest of the Amish's 6.0. (Conservative Mennonites are even lower, so we can rest assured that they, too, will eventually go extinct.)

I leave it up to the reader to decide if a world composed of mostly Swarties, Pikers, Hoovers, and Hasidic Jews is the one they want. If not, then perhaps the rest of the world should consider not deliberately planning its own extinction. Of note is that virtually every group in the world has a rapidly dropping TFR below replacement level, including much of the third world, India, various African countries, and Saudi Arabia, which used to be much higher.

[Ken]

The article neglects the concept of carrying capacity.

You could make a similar prediction about any population that has an exponential growth rate. Grasshoppers, rabbits, deer, etc. Multiply growth rates out a dozen generations and the earth is literally 300 ft deep with a layer of rabbits. But that never happens because every biological niche has a carrying capacity.

So what is the carrying capacity for conservative Amish groups in the US? Right now they occupy a niche of reasonably productive agricultural lands in some rural pockets of the US that are not particularly conducive to larger-scale corporate agriculture. There is a minimum size for a productive Amish farm, that probably depends on the particular area, soil quality, rainfall, etc. In the area I'm familiar with the average Amish farm is probably around 75 acres give or take. In dry areas like Nebraska it is probably larger. In productive areas closer to cities where things like intensive farm-to-market vegetable gardening is possible it might be smaller.

Good agricultural land is also increasingly being bought up by corporate interests, investors, etc. Not only traditional agribusinesses, but billionaires like Bill Gates are investing in farmland. And there are now instruments like agricultural real estate investment trusts (REITs) through which ordinary investors can dump money into farmland without actually having to buy it themselves. So the supply of land suitable to small scale Amish-type agriculture in the US is finite and they have to compete with enormously deep-pocketed investors to find new land. And in every part of the country that is within any sort of remotely reasonable commute from a larger city the Amish will also be competing against suburban sprawl and all the people who either want their little hobby farm in the country, or a McMansion on 5 acres.

Therefore, there is most definitely a carrying capacity for Amish life in the US. What that carrying capacity is I have no idea. A million? Several million? Who knows. Someone else can do the mathematical modeling. But the amount of land in the US suitable to Amish lifestyles is probably shrinking rapidly in many parts of the US due to encroachment of suburban sprawl.

Now is it possible for Amish to follow the trends of the rest of the country and move into urban and suburban settings and take on non-farm employment? Of course. Many already do along the fringes or urban areas like in Lancaster. But I would suggest that conservative Amish lifestyle and large families are simply not compatible with urban life. It would be literally illegal for Amish to live in most of urban and suburban America and maintain a horse-and-buggy lifestyle. Cities are no longer accommodating to horses. Nor are they accommodating to living 'off the grid' and heating your house by wood or coal. That went out over 100 years ago. Try ripping out the wiring and indoor plumbing in your suburban ranch home and putting in a wood fired stove and outhouse and see how fast the building inspector will be on your case. And most urban areas are not very amenable to maintaining large Amish-style families. It is a LOT easier to raise a family of 12 on a farm than a typical suburban apartment or 3 bedroom ranch home. So I would expect conservative Amish families to dramatically shrink in size as they move to the cities. It is also going to become increasingly hard to compete for non-farm employment with limited education and with women staying home to raise kids. And there goes your exponential growth curve right there if urban Amish start acting more like the "English" in order to survive in an urban economy.

[Josh]

The article neglects the concept of carrying capacity.

You could make a similar prediction about any population that has an exponential growth rate. Grasshoppers, rabbits, deer, etc. Multiply growth rates out a dozen generations and the earth is literally 300 ft deep with a layer of rabbits. But that never happens because every biological niche has a carrying capacity.

I'm not sure I appreciate you comparing Amish to rabbits or grasshoppers.

So what is the carrying capacity for conservative Amish groups in the US? Right now they occupy a niche of reasonably productive agricultural lands in some rural pockets of the US that are not particularly conducive to larger-scale corporate agriculture. There is a minimum size for a productive Amish farm, that probably depends on the particular area, soil quality, rainfall, etc. In the area I'm familiar with the average Amish farm is probably around 75 acres give or take. In dry areas like Nebraska it is probably larger. In productive areas closer to cities where things like intensive farm-to-market vegetable gardening is possible it might be smaller.

The majority of Amish live on small pieces of land and work in factory jobs. Very few Amish own a farm as big as 75 acres anymore.

Good agricultural land is also increasingly being bought up by corporate interests, investors, etc. Not only traditional agribusinesses, but billionaires like Bill Gates are investing in farmland. And there are now instruments like agricultural real estate investment trusts (REITs) through which ordinary investors can dump money into farmland without actually having to buy it themselves. So the supply of land suitable to small scale Amish-type agriculture in the US is finite and they have to compete with enormously deep-pocketed investors to find new land. And in every part of the country that is within any sort of remotely reasonable commute from a larger city the Amish will also be competing against suburban sprawl and all the people who either want their little hobby farm in the country, or a McMansion on 5 acres.

I'm not sure what you're talking about; REITs have been around for decades. It's true that the rich are trying to buy up all the productive land and rent it out for exorbitant rents, but that's not new. That's a story as old as human history, and indeed has been something the Amish have dealt with since their founding. Early Anabaptists who were farmers were tenant farmers, and often not very wealthy or successful ones.

Therefore, there is most definitely a carrying capacity for Amish life in the US. What that carrying capacity is I have no idea. A million? Several million? Who knows. Someone else can do the mathematical modeling. But the amount of land in the US suitable to Amish lifestyles is probably shrinking rapidly in many parts of the US due to encroachment of suburban sprawl.

Very few people can probably extract as much productivity from the land as Amish can. Most people on a 5 acre McMansion don't grow anything except grass and weeds. Amish will be raising a horse or two and have a productive garden. Exactly how many other people have a sustainable form of transportation that subsists solely off an acre of grass?

Now is it possible for Amish to follow the trends of the rest of the country and move into urban and suburban settings and take on non-farm employment? Of course. Many already do along the fringes or urban areas like in Lancaster. But I would suggest that conservative Amish lifestyle and large families are simply not compatible with urban life. It would be literally illegal for Amish to live in most of urban and suburban America and maintain a horse-and-buggy lifestyle.

No, it is not. The Supreme Court has, in fact, said that is entirely legal to maintain an Amish lifestyle for religious reasons, which is why Amish people do it. (When they leave their religion, they almost universally stop living a horse and buggy lifestyle.) Any such laws are unconstitutional and would not survive a court challenge, as many local and state governments have learned. See Wisconsin v. Yoder for an example.

I also find it funny you say "large families are simply not compatible with urban life". I see immigrants with large families in cities all the time. Are you saying these people are "not compatible" with "urban life"?

Cities are no longer accommodating to horses.

Incorrect. Amish are expanding into suburban areas and suburban planners are having to figure out how to adapt to things like horses. (I attended an academic conference a few weeks ago where one of the presenters discussed this very thing, citing how suburban and city planners have dealt with Amish moving into formerly suburbanite areas.)

This is no different than "other" types of people moving into suburban areas. Or do you think suburbs should exclusively be for one particular type of people?

That went out over 100 years ago. And most urban areas are not very amenable to maintaining large Amish-style families. It is a LOT easier to raise a family of 12 on a farm than a typical suburban apartment or 3 bedroom ranch home. So I would expect conservative Amish families to dramatically shrink in size as they move to the cities.

Ken, I think you may win an award for completely missing the point in conversations like this.

The original point was that population is declining, both domestically and globally, which means these cities are going to find themselves depopulated. And most of the land in the world and America is not in cities anyway. And with declining population, there will be less demand for food and less demand for land.

It is also going to become increasingly hard to compete for non-farm employment with limited education and with women staying home to raise kids. And there goes your exponential growth curve right there if urban Amish start acting more like the "English" in order to survive in an urban economy.

In the early 1900s, around 99% (nearly all) Amish people converted to various other faiths, on an eventual evangelical or secular path; these groups ended up populating church groups like the CMC, some of MC USA, Apostolic Christians, FEC, the other MC USA (Missionary Church USA), FEBC, the United Methodist Church, and so on and so forth.

The people who leave are irrelevant since they end up with a low birth rate and go extinct. What matters is those who maintain an Amish lifestyle and have large families, and this extends to other groups with similar behaviour, like ultra-Orthodox Jewish people in Israel or Hoover Mennonites.

Ultimately, whatever causes people to have families above replacement rate (or far above replacement rate) will end up demographically dominating the human race. Everyone else (and their associated culture) will go extinct. It is amusing how much you think the current situation will stay the way it is.

[Ken]

No Josh, I haven't missed the point.

First, large families and urban life are not particularly compatible. You cite the example of large immigrant families. But the immigrant family from rural Guatemala with 10 kids rapidly shrinks to the US average of one or two kids after a generation or two because having 10 children in rural Guatemala is a completely different prospect from having 10 kids in suburban Los Angeles. The first thing that happens is that women start working outside the home in order to afford life in a higher cost of living area and then birthrates plummet. Every first-generation immigrant group that comes to the US with large families sees their birthrates plummet down to something more in line with national averages after a generation or two. It doesn't matter what part of the world they come from or what religion they follow. The trend is universal. I'm just suggesting it will be exactly the same if conservative Amish move into urban areas. Which is more or less the same thing as a rural Guatemalan family moving to Los Angeles.

Second, despite your claims to the contrary, a horse-and-buggy and off-the-grid life is simply incompatible with most of the urban and suburban built areas in this country. Where are you going to pasture your horses in most of suburban and urban America? How are you going to heat your home and cook your food without electricity in cities where wood stoves are illegal due to pollution regulations? You simply aren't going to squeeze hundreds of thousands, let alone millions of horses and buggies and off-the-grid homes into suburban Dallas, Atlanta, Seattle, Charlotte, etc. It simply isn't going to happen. Now is a Swartzentruber Amish family STILL actually Swartzentruber if they live in suburban Dallas, commute to work across town by car, heat their homes and cook with electricity, and use modern plumbing instead of pumping water by hand and using an outhouse in the back yard ? I have no idea.

My point is that there is a limited physical capacity within the US to accommodate a traditional Amish lifestyle. I don't know what that capacity is, but it is finite. Beyond that they are going to have to give up most of what it means to be conservative Amish. So conservative Amish population growth rates will hit some natural limits just like for any other population. It is inevitable.

Put another way, we could color-code a map of the US green, yellow, and red based on how amenable that particular area is to accommodating an Amish lifestyle. Green areas are where it is possible. Yellow areas are where it is highly difficult and problematic. Red areas is where it is impossible. I would suggest that the green areas are actually shrinking and have a finite capacity to support Amish populations. And to the extent that Amish move into the yellow and red areas they are going to have to sacrifice most of the lifestyle that defines them as Amish.

In the 19th Century white Anglo Protestants used to raise the the alarm about the Italian and Irish moving to the US with their LARGE Catholic families. Citing more or less the same trends as the article above about Amish population growth. Did we become a nation populated exclusively by Italian and Irish Catholics with large families? No we did not.

Are the Amish going to be the only group in American history to defy these trends and forces? I suspect not.

[barnhart]

You're right HK, that is an amusing conclusion to the article.

[ohio jones]

Good agricultural land is also increasingly being bought up by corporate interests, investors, etc. Not only traditional agribusinesses, but billionaires like Bill Gates are investing in farmland. And there are now instruments like agricultural real estate investment trusts (REITs) through which ordinary investors can dump money into farmland without actually having to buy it themselves. So the supply of land suitable to small scale Amish-type agriculture in the US is finite and they have to compete with enormously deep-pocketed investors to find new land. And in every part of the country that is within any sort of remotely reasonable commute from a larger city the Amish will also be competing against suburban sprawl and all the people who either want their little hobby farm in the country, or a McMansion on 5 acres.

I'm not sure what you're talking about; REITs have been around for decades. It's true that the rich are trying to buy up all the productive land and rent it out for exorbitant rents, but that's not new. That's a story as old as human history, and indeed has been something the Amish have dealt with since their founding. Early Anabaptists who were farmers were tenant farmers, and often not very wealthy or successful ones.

The competition for agricultural land will create a bubble, and when it bursts, the Amish will be there to pick up the pieces. Meanwhile, the combination of population decline and recession will slow suburban sprawl. In addition, the cheaply built subdivisions of the 1950s-60s are approaching their useful life span and will eventually be either redeveloped or abandoned, much like has been happening in the inner city cores. So I would expect to see American cities start to contract rather than expand in the long term, possibly in combination with the Amish leapfrogging into formerly urban/suburban areas.

Orthodox Jews and Amish are among the most creative and resourceful people around due to their ability to meet the letter of the law while pursuing other goals.

Now is a Swartzentruber Amish family STILL actually Swartzentruber if they live in suburban Dallas, commute to work across town by car, heat their homes and cook with electricity, and use modern plumbing instead of pumping water by hand and using an outhouse in the back yard ? I have no idea.

Maybe not the Swartzentrubers, but many Amish already use electricity (just not from the grid*; solar and wind are acceptable) and have indoor plumbing. Some don't have horses if they can manage with bicycles and walking, with employer-provided job transportation and the occasional car hire. And in suburban Dallas they would have DART and Uber.

*Around here if the Amish buy an "English" house they have two years to transition off of the grid. I don't know for sure, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if some of them simply move every two years.

[ken_sylvania]

Good agricultural land is also increasingly being bought up by corporate interests, investors, etc. Not only traditional agribusinesses, but billionaires like Bill Gates are investing in farmland. And there are now instruments like agricultural real estate investment trusts (REITs) through which ordinary investors can dump money into farmland without actually having to buy it themselves. So the supply of land suitable to small scale Amish-type agriculture in the US is finite and they have to compete with enormously deep-pocketed investors to find new land. And in every part of the country that is within any sort of remotely reasonable commute from a larger city the Amish will also be competing against suburban sprawl and all the people who either want their little hobby farm in the country, or a McMansion on 5 acres.

I'm not sure what you're talking about; REITs have been around for decades. It's true that the rich are trying to buy up all the productive land and rent it out for exorbitant rents, but that's not new. That's a story as old as human history, and indeed has been something the Amish have dealt with since their founding. Early Anabaptists who were farmers were tenant farmers, and often not very wealthy or successful ones.

The competition for agricultural land will create a bubble, and when it bursts, the Amish will be there to pick up the pieces. Meanwhile, the combination of population decline and recession will slow suburban sprawl. In addition, the cheaply built subdivisions of the 1950s-60s are approaching their useful life span and will eventually be either redeveloped or abandoned, much like has been happening in the inner city cores. So I would expect to see American cities start to contract rather than expand in the long term, possibly in combination with the Amish leapfrogging into formerly urban/suburban areas.

Orthodox Jews and Amish are among the most creative and resourceful people around due to their ability to meet the letter of the law while pursuing other goals.

Now is a Swartzentruber Amish family STILL actually Swartzentruber if they live in suburban Dallas, commute to work across town by car, heat their homes and cook with electricity, and use modern plumbing instead of pumping water by hand and using an outhouse in the back yard ? I have no idea.

Maybe not the Swartzentrubers, but many Amish already use electricity (just not from the grid*; solar and wind are acceptable) and have indoor plumbing. Some don't have horses if they can manage with bicycles and walking, with employer-provided job transportation and the occasional car hire. And in suburban Dallas they would have DART and Uber.

*Around here if the Amish buy an "English" house they have two years to transition off of the grid. I don't know for sure, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if some of them simply move every two years.

It's my understanding that our local Amish don't necessarily have to disconnect from the grid if they are in a rented house, although depending on the situation they might only use an electric light in a closet rather than using them to light the kitchen or bedroom.

[Ken]

Good agricultural land is also increasingly being bought up by corporate interests, investors, etc. Not only traditional agribusinesses, but billionaires like Bill Gates are investing in farmland. And there are now instruments like agricultural real estate investment trusts (REITs) through which ordinary investors can dump money into farmland without actually having to buy it themselves. So the supply of land suitable to small scale Amish-type agriculture in the US is finite and they have to compete with enormously deep-pocketed investors to find new land. And in every part of the country that is within any sort of remotely reasonable commute from a larger city the Amish will also be competing against suburban sprawl and all the people who either want their little hobby farm in the country, or a McMansion on 5 acres.

I'm not sure what you're talking about; REITs have been around for decades. It's true that the rich are trying to buy up all the productive land and rent it out for exorbitant rents, but that's not new. That's a story as old as human history, and indeed has been something the Amish have dealt with since their founding. Early Anabaptists who were farmers were tenant farmers, and often not very wealthy or successful ones.

The competition for agricultural land will create a bubble, and when it bursts, the Amish will be there to pick up the pieces. Meanwhile, the combination of population decline and recession will slow suburban sprawl. In addition, the cheaply built subdivisions of the 1950s-60s are approaching their useful life span and will eventually be either redeveloped or abandoned, much like has been happening in the inner city cores. So I would expect to see American cities start to contract rather than expand in the long term, possibly in combination with the Amish leapfrogging into formerly urban/suburban areas.

Orthodox Jews and Amish are among the most creative and resourceful people around due to their ability to meet the letter of the law while pursuing other goals.

Now is a Swartzentruber Amish family STILL actually Swartzentruber if they live in suburban Dallas, commute to work across town by car, heat their homes and cook with electricity, and use modern plumbing instead of pumping water by hand and using an outhouse in the back yard ? I have no idea.

Maybe not the Swartzentrubers, but many Amish already use electricity (just not from the grid*; solar and wind are acceptable) and have indoor plumbing. Some don't have horses if they can manage with bicycles and walking, with employer-provided job transportation and the occasional car hire. And in suburban Dallas they would have DART and Uber.

*Around here if the Amish buy an "English" house they have two years to transition off of the grid. I don't know for sure, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if some of them simply move every two years.

I’m not saying the Amish aren’t going to continue to grow. I expect they will. I’m just disputing the notion that those trends will continue unabated as they move into urban areas. It hasn’t happened for any other religious or ethnic group in the history of the US (or the history of the world for that matter). I don’t think the Amish will be the one group who defies all these social and economic forces.

I fully understand the appeal of living a simple rural agrarian lifestyle, raising your own food, raising your kids on the farm, living in the country, etc. There is a lot to be said for following that sort of life, and living in a small rural community where your neighbors and community are like-minded. I completely get it. There is a real romance to that lifestyle and when I was younger I thought I could be Amish. Live a simple life, enjoy the simple rural pleasures.

I just don’t think that transfers very well to urban/suburban America. I commute by bike but I chose to live in an area with good biking infrastructure. But that also means living in an area with a population density that doesn’t support off-the-grid rural lifestyles. Much of the new construction around here is 5 over 2 apartment and condo complexes like these



Or small-lot town homes like these:



Because of climate mandates much new construction is 100% electrical dependent and they aren’t even building with gas for heating or cooking in many areas.

Sure there are plenty of Amish who might move into these sorts of neighborhoods and then get by trying to use bikes and public transportation. But I don’t see them maintaining much of what it means to be Amish if they do so. They just become another fundamentalist group with large families who’s kids are unlikely to keep up the same lifestyle of enormous families and rejection of most modern technology. It is one thing to live off the grid with a large family and without technology on a 75 acre farm in rural PA. Another thing entirely to do it in urban America.

So where will Amish populations peak at in the US? I have no idea. 1 million? 2 million? Who knows. But I expect they will never be more than a tiny fraction of the population. No similar group ever is.

You could make all the same arguments about the Roma (Gypsies). They also tend to have much larger families than average Americans or Europeans. They have been around for centuries or millennia. But are they taking over Europe or the US? No they are not.

[Josh]

Exactly why do you think Amish want to move into cities?

And why do you think they’d buy pre-built houses?