Poll: Who will win 2024 Presidency?

[Ken]

I don't have the slightest idea who will win.

I know I've said this before. But I expect the results will be much less consequential than people on both sides expect. No matter who wins, they will be an instant lame duck since both will be ineligible to run again in 2028. Most Presidents get very little done in their second terms because they usually face a divided or hostile legislature. And many of the leaders in Congress on both sides of the aisle will shift into 2028 campaign mode almost immediately and will be uninterested in falling on their swords for either president to get difficult legislation passed.

In fact, almost as soon as the next president is inaugurated in January 2025, I expect the press and country to shift into 2028 campaign mode. Since the nomination path will be completely wide open on both the Democratic and Republican sides for the first time in a long time. And honestly, whichever party wins in 2024 will be at a disadvantage in 2028 since people will almost certainly be ready for a change after 4 years of zero accomplishments and probably some sort of economic recession as well. If Trump wins it will set up the Democrats to take over the White House in 2028 for probably an 8-year run. If Biden wins it will set up the Republicans to take over the White House in 2028 for probably an 8 year run.

2028 is the really consequential election, not 2024.

[ohio jones]

If Biden wins it will set up the Republicans to take over the White House in 2028 for probably an 8 year run.

Probably a 4 or 12 year run. Or maybe you don't think Trump would run again.

[Ken]

If Biden wins it will set up the Republicans to take over the White House in 2028 for probably an 8 year run.

Probably a 4 or 12 year run. Or maybe you don't think Trump would run again.

Do I think Trump will run again in 2028 if he loses in 2024?

He might run again as a 80-something 2-time loser. But Republicans would be insane to nominate him again. If he did win the nomination again in 2028 that would be an absolute gift to the Democrats and I reverse my prediction and expect that a Democrat would win to replace Biden.

Every year that passes, more of Trump's base dies off and a very very very different type of electorate turns 18. The electorate in 2028 will be vastly different than the one that he won with in 2016. Times change faster than we think when it comes to politics. It wasn't that long ago that California, Oregon, and Washington were red states and Texas and West Virginia were blue states.

[RZehr]

Supreme Court could probably benefit from 4 more years of Trump. I see some concerned Democrats are thinking Sotomayor should retire to avoid another RBG.

[Robert]

Are you essentially saying that unless Trump wins, we will have another Civil War? That is not what I think.

More and more videos of people not able to afford to live are popping up. People are getting quite mad about how things are. If the election looks stolen again, I suspect there will be some kind of response that will make 1/6 look like kids in action. You do not need F16's. You just need a strong group of very angry people who will act stupidly.

I do not think we would see state level revolts, but a citizenry that ignores the state and local law will just let them run.

So if Biden honestly wins, they better make it really transparent or there will be a aggressive response and most will doubt enough to not speak or stand against it. Only 1/3 of the population wanted the Revolutionary War. 1/3 supported England and 1/3 did not care. 1/3 of the population can and will do much, especially when they are angry and feel cheated.

[barnhart]

So if Biden honestly wins, they better make it really transparent or there will be a aggressive response and most will doubt enough to not speak or stand against it. Only 1/3 of the population wanted the Revolutionary War. 1/3 supported England and 1/3 did not care. 1/3 of the population can and will do much, especially when they are angry and feel cheated.

What do you think could be done to make elections "really transparent".

[Grace]

Are you essentially saying that unless Trump wins, we will have another Civil War? That is not what I think.

More and more videos of people not able to afford to live are popping up. People are getting quite mad about how things are. If the election looks stolen again, I suspect there will be some kind of response that will make 1/6 look like kids in action. You do not need F16's. You just need a strong group of very angry people who will act stupidly.

I do not think we would see state level revolts, but a citizenry that ignores the state and local law will just let them run.

So if Biden honestly wins, they better make it really transparent or there will be a aggressive response and most will doubt enough to not speak or stand against it. Only 1/3 of the population wanted the Revolutionary War. 1/3 supported England and 1/3 did not care. 1/3 of the population can and will do much, especially when they are angry and feel cheated.

Just recently Jill Biden was on “CBS Mornings”, defending Joe Biden’s poor polling numbers which has him lagging behind Trump in six out of seven crucial swing states.

Her one comment was “it’s obvious that Joe will win this election”. Even though the polls aren’t favorable to Biden in many swing states, He, his wife and the main stream media seem so confident he will win the election. That could be because of two reasons. First, that they live in an unrealistic world. Or they know the election will be won, because they know there will be cheating in favor of Biden.

[Ken]

Who do I want to win? None of the above.

I think Trump won in 2020. I think he has a good chance to win again, but there may be more election interference that keeps him out again. If that happens, we will no longer have a cold civil war. It will get quite hot.

I mean, you're not wrong. Trumpworld is apparently filled with violent homicidal maniacs and gun fetishists. From yesterday's news: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-fi ... 9df35397ba

Police Report: Trump County Chair Threatened To Rape Boss's Wife, Then Kill Him: Jonathan Stone, a former New Hampshire police officer, has been a part of Trump’s campaign since 2016, when he gave Trump an inscribed AR-15 assault rifle.

One of Donald Trump’s county campaign chairs in New Hampshire lost his job as a police officer after threatening to kill his colleagues in a shooting spree, murder the department chief and rape the chief’s wife in retaliation for his suspension over his relationship with a high school girl, according to a newly released report from an internal affairs investigation.

Jonathan Stone, who is currently a second-term state representative, was announced as Trump’s Sullivan County chair by his campaign on June 27, 2023. The coup-attempting former president first came to know Stone during Trump’s 2016 run, when Stone gave him an inscribed AR-15 assault rifle at a campaign stop.

And after that he was still able to open a gun shop. Nice.

Stone, who opened a gun shop after losing his job as a police officer, did not reply to HuffPost queries.

Stephen Stepanek, Trump’s New Hampshire campaign chair, said he knew nothing about Stone’s background until seeing news accounts.

“I just found out about it this morning,” Stepanek said Wednesday. “He’s been a Trump supporter for a long time, and he’s been a state representative, and he had, as far as we were concerned, what looked like a great background.”

[barnhart]

Just recently Jill Biden was on “CBS Mornings”, defending Joe Biden’s poor polling numbers which has him lagging behind Trump in six out of seven crucial swing states.

Her one comment was “it’s obvious that Joe will win this election”. Even though the polls aren’t favorable to Biden in many swing states, He, his wife and the main stream media seem so confident he will win the election. That could be because of two reasons. First, that they live in an unrealistic world. Or they know the election will be won, because they know there will be cheating in favor of Biden.

I think all candidates talk like they have a massive mandate before elections.

[Grace]

I mean, you're not wrong. Trumpworld is apparently filled with violent homicidal maniacs and gun fetishists. From yesterday's news:

The Trump world Jonathon Stone account seems pretty mild when you think of the current presidential world, that emboldened a homicidal dictator maniac who has killed thousands in Ukraine. A world that empowered a nation to fund Hamas, who brutally killed, raped, and cooked babies alive. Add to that, a world of open borders, and a very special gift to violent homicidal maniac criminals, such as the one who killed Laiken Riley.