2023 US vs. China GDP

[Josh]

Family sizes are mostly determined by how conservative a group is; economic considerations are not the driver. If a group becomes more liberal, family sizes go down.

The net effect is that Swartzentruber populations are becoming bigger than everyone else.

It’s also a myth that urban areas don’t require a lot of land. They require absolutely massive amounts of land to produce enough food, timber, mining, petroleum production, trash disposal, stormwater runoff, and so forth to sustain the urban (or suburban) mode of living.

[Bootstrap]

Remember the 1970s, when we thought Japan was going to become the economic powerhouse of the the world, at our expense? That's not what happened.

I don't think there's any law of nature that says that China must become the economic powerhouse of the world. The way they play their cards really matters. Some things are catching up with them.

That can happen to the United States too. But there's now law of nature that says it has to.

FWIW, I think we will see Africa and India rise significantly in the coming decades.

[Josh]

Remember the 1970s, when we thought Japan was going to become the economic powerhouse of the the world, at our expense? That's not what happened.

I don't think there's any law of nature that says that China must become the economic powerhouse of the world. The way they play their cards really matters. Some things are catching up with them.

That can happen to the United States too. But there's now law of nature that says it has to.

FWIW, I think we will see Africa and India rise significantly in the coming decades.

One point in China’s favour is they seem to avoid getting in pointless wars and having huge amounts of military spending. (China’s is less than half of America’s.) Instead of invading countries, or trying to overturn their governments and leaders, they offer to develop countries and build roads, ports, and businesses. They also pursue an agenda of peace with their neighbours and prefer to build trade links, even with disputed territory like Taiwan.

China can’t rely on immigration to replace their low birth rate. When you are 1.4 billion out of the total 8 billion people in the world, the answer is not “let’s try to move another billion people in”. (India, which also has a crashing birth rate, is in the same boat.) There are many strategic thinkers in China trying to tackle these issues of great importance. In America, I don’t see much strategic thinking beyond “let’s bring in more immigrants” and “let’s make the child tax credit bigger”.

[Ken]

Remember the 1970s, when we thought Japan was going to become the economic powerhouse of the the world, at our expense? That's not what happened.

I don't think there's any law of nature that says that China must become the economic powerhouse of the world. The way they play their cards really matters. Some things are catching up with them.

That can happen to the United States too. But there's now law of nature that says it has to.

FWIW, I think we will see Africa and India rise significantly in the coming decades.

One point in China’s favour is they seem to avoid getting in pointless wars and having huge amounts of military spending. (China’s is less than half of America’s.) Instead of invading countries, or trying to overturn their governments and leaders, they offer to develop countries and build roads, ports, and businesses. They also pursue an agenda of peace with their neighbours and prefer to build trade links, even with disputed territory like Taiwan.

China can’t rely on immigration to replace their low birth rate. When you are 1.4 billion out of the total 8 billion people in the world, the answer is not “let’s try to move another billion people in”. (India, which also has a crashing birth rate, is in the same boat.) There are many strategic thinkers in China trying to tackle these issues of great importance. In America, I don’t see much strategic thinking beyond “let’s bring in more immigrants” and “let’s make the child tax credit bigger”.

In America we don't engage in central planning for most areas of public policy.

We do for things like military and trade policy, immigration, and a few things like health care and civil rights.

But unlike China we have a Federal system of government under our constitution and most things like education, transportation, and economic development, and population policy are largely left to the states and localities.

[Josh]

In America we don't engage in central planning for most areas of public policy.

We do for things like military and trade policy, immigration, and a few things like health care and civil rights.

But unlike China we have a Federal system of government under our constitution and most things like education, transportation, and economic development, and population policy are largely left to the states and localities.

One of the biggest differences between us and China is military policy... which is indeed centrally planned. And one of the biggest wastes of money. The hundreds of billions sent overseas for pointless wars in the last year is mind blowing.