2024 Presidential Campaign Polls

[mike]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... /national/

This thread is for discussion and posting of polls related to the 2024 presidential race.

The 2024 presidential election looks like another contest between Trump and Biden. There are a number of things that are hard to wrap my head around. Such as why Trump has the popularity he does given how awful a person and candidate he is, and the fact that depending which poll you read he is ahead of Biden. And how on earth men this old and unpopular (Biden has an even greater negative spread between those who like him and those who don't) are all but the chosen candidates of their respective parties at this point. I feel sure that there are plenty of powerful people in each party who wish things were different.

Why does Biden at 38% have a lower approval rating than Trump at 42%?

Why don't the other Republican primary candidates really even have a shot? I guess things could change but it doesn't look likely at this point. It's obvious why there isn't really a contest on the Democrat side, a placeholder candidate like Biden worked last time and now he's the incumbent, but one would think that there would be others on the Republican side who could easily make the argument they would govern better than Trump.

[Valerie]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... /national/

This thread is for discussion and posting of polls related to the 2024 presidential race.

The 2024 presidential election looks like another contest between Trump and Biden. There are a number of things that are hard to wrap my head around. Such as why Trump has the popularity he does given how awful a person and candidate he is, and the fact that depending which poll you read he is ahead of Biden. And how on earth men this old and unpopular (Biden has an even greater negative spread between those who like him and those who don't) are all but the chosen candidates of their respective parties at this point. I feel sure that there are plenty of powerful people in each party who wish things were different.

Why does Biden at 38% have a lower approval rating than Trump at 42%?

Why don't the other Republican primary candidates really even have a shot? I guess things could change but it doesn't look likely at this point. It's obvious why there isn't really a contest on the Democrat side, a placeholder candidate like Biden worked last time and now he's the incumbent, but one would think that there would be others on the Republican side who could easily make the argument they would govern better than Trump.

Trump is very popular in spite of hatred by some. He knows what he's doing & he's shown that his age is in no way slowing him down.
His numbers are high because he did a great job according to a lot of people obviously. Until COVID, other than the dirty things the left was doing to destroy him he proved he could do a great job. His priority at the border to keep our country safe has been destroyed the last 3 years. I will stop here.

[Grace]

Why does Biden at 38% have a lower approval rating than Trump at 42%?

Because Biden is even worse than Trump.

[barnhart]

Well Mike, I think you have your answers...

[Valerie]

Why does Biden at 38% have a lower approval rating than Trump at 42%?

Because Biden is even worse than Trump.

Mennonite probably not the best place to ask the questions

[JohnHurt]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... /national/

This thread is for discussion and posting of polls related to the 2024 presidential race.

The 2024 presidential election looks like another contest between Trump and Biden. There are a number of things that are hard to wrap my head around. Such as why Trump has the popularity he does given how awful a person and candidate he is, and the fact that depending which poll you read he is ahead of Biden. And how on earth men this old and unpopular (Biden has an even greater negative spread between those who like him and those who don't) are all but the chosen candidates of their respective parties at this point. I feel sure that there are plenty of powerful people in each party who wish things were different.

Why does Biden at 38% have a lower approval rating than Trump at 42%?

Why don't the other Republican primary candidates really even have a shot? I guess things could change but it doesn't look likely at this point. It's obvious why there isn't really a contest on the Democrat side, a placeholder candidate like Biden worked last time and now he's the incumbent, but one would think that there would be others on the Republican side who could easily make the argument they would govern better than Trump.

Mike,

I hope this is a good answer for you to consider:

The other Republican party candidates, except for Vivek Ramaswamy, represent the Military Industrial complex - and other elites. The NeoCon Republican Nikki Haley is Dick Cheney in heels, DeSantis is questionable, and the Ron Paul "freedom" type Republicans" do not want a war with Russia, China and the Middle East - all at the same time. So they are voting for Trump in the primary as there is no alternative.

It is not the dedicated Democrats or dedicated Republicans that decide elections, it is the independent voters that will change sides that come over to a party to win an election. And no independent person wants their sons, or all of us, to die in some nuclear war that Biden will create with Russia over Ukraine. Peace is popular and peace wins votes. That is why independents are voting for Trump - they don't want to die.

There is also a very strong feeling among those that voted for Trump in 2020 that the 2020 election was stolen. For a lot of these voters, the 2024 election is a litmus test of whether the electoral process will even work. So they are dedicated to try one more time.

But the greatest reason is the economy. It is like when Bill Clinton got impeached, and had all of the sex scandals of his administration - a person was asked why he was still voting for Clinton? He pulled his wallet out and said there was money in his wallet under Clinton, and not under Bush or Bob Dole. Like Clinton said, "Its the economy, stupid." Clinton was right, and the economy was so much better under Trump than it is now under Biden, that even if you hate Trump, you will vote for your wallet and vote for Trump.

The last reason is the open southern border. You have millions of people coming in that must be supported by our tax dollars, and MS-13 and other criminals are now running loose. People are scared. Fear is what is driving these otherwise "non-committed" voters to back Trump.

I don't like Trump, but I really think that the Biden Family has been bought off by Communist China and have been instructed to weaken our country from within. What with cutting off the oil production, starting a war with Russia - the idea that the Chinese control Biden (or "elite capture") is the only thing that makes sense. Buying off Biden is cheaper and more effective than fighting a war with the USA. Biden is corrupt, and his family does take bribes - unless you really believe someone would pay $300,000 for a watercolor art piece made by Biden's crack head son. So believing that Biden is bought and paid for by the Chinese makes perfect sense. And that is why I am voting for Trump.

Biden is also senile and cannot tie his own shoes. He can barely read a teleprompter. So who is running the USA? At least Trump appears credible to a lot of people, even if he is controlled too.

The Democrats know that Biden cannot win, so Biden will be replaced at the Democratic National Convention or sooner with either Gavin Newsome or Michelle Obama.

Take care, and thanks for the thread.

John

[Valerie]

I agree with John for the most part. However I disagree that the main reason is the economy. Remember he ran on "draining the swamp". We did not know when he we on the ER lection in 2016 that the country would do so much better economically,- that was a big ys but that's not where Republican's heads were at when electing him first time although recognizing he's brilliant at making things happen. Yes the economy took a terrible turn for the worse under Biden but I still don't think that is the main reason people want Trump to finish what he started. Remember he had promised to appoint conservative judges to the Supreme Court. Because of this Roe V Wade was overturned. He was seen as a leader & world leaders did not see him as weak & so look at the difference now

Personally I would rather see DeSantis as front runner. I really appreciate him and he is 10x better at controlling his tongue.

I am concerned about Newsom or Michelle Obama almost as much as Biden

[temporal1]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... /national/

Why does Biden at 38% have a lower approval rating than Trump at 42%?

Why don't the other Republican primary candidates really even have a shot?
I guess things could change but it doesn't look likely at this point.

It's obvious why there isn't really a contest on the Democrat side, a placeholder candidate like Biden worked last time and now he's the incumbent, but one would think that there would be others on the Republican side who could easily make the argument they would govern better than Trump.

i hadn’t thought of your “placeholder” description, but, using it, i would guess DJT might seem very like, or more like,
an “incumbent” placeholder for conservatives - he’s the only one who has served as POTUS, AND, as Valerie+Grace+others recall,
in spite of everything, he did a pretty good job in office - regardless of party.

in addition, he has the craziest ability to HOLD UP and REBOUND, bar none. his endurance is unique. (others fold.)

having said that, i’m encouraged by the “deep bench” conservatives have. in the event DJT wins, he has many good people, able+willing, to step up.

i can’t think of anything that’s improved with biden/libs in office, things look bleak, people are stressed.
sure, there are official narratives that paint rosy pictures. but, “rosy” is not how people are feeling at home, at work.

today, i offered someone a $5 tip for helping me, i said, “please accept this, buy one-half sandwich.”
that would be half a fast food sandwich.

Illegal immigration.
ONE example of what’s worrying people: (i have no examples of what’s not worrying people)

Forbes / Biden Is 'The First President In The History Of This Nation' To Do This On Border: Tom Homan / -6min

Description:
“At today's House Oversight Committee hearing,
former Acting ICE Director Tom Homan spoke about President Biden and the surge of migrants coming through the border.”

A cross-section of ordinary guys’ opinions: (men i expect will be voting)

CartierFamily / Black Man Demands Trump "Clean This Mess Up!" / 13min

^^i’m not in total agreement with these young+old men, but i understand their pov, their alarm.
in Chicago, somehow, they never before thought of the southern border states as THEIR border.
it always has been. who misled them??! who failed to let them know?

DJT isn’t “ONLY” a rough speaker.
To match his good policies, he can be an excellent speaker. (If he were a lib, nothing else would be heard.)
msm refuses to air anything but the worst/controversial. that’s the math. if that’s all you hear, it’s perfectly understandable to be so negative. if you listen in balance, you’re likely to find much more in common with (the deplorables).

i’m not afraid of DJT.
i’m encouraged there are so many good people of all descriptions ready+willing to serve.

[temporal1]

I am concerned about Newsom or Michelle Obama almost as much as Biden

i think biden reflects, the DNC is some description mob organization, it literally doesn’t matter who they appoint.
the various party members who have left (including DJT) demonstrate, you either align, or get out.

if DJT had seen a future with the DNC, wow. hard to imagine. there’s no place for being different, for talent.
they demand script-readers. every one.

i’m pretty sure the obamas have zero interest in returning to the White House. too confining. they really-really love livin’ large.
as it is, they can stir pots at will, while never being inconvenienced - just like their billionaire buddies.

[JohnHurt]

Personally I would rather see DeSantis as front runner. I really appreciate him and he is 10x better at controlling his tongue.

DeSantis time is not 2024, but I would vote for him if DJT was not running. Yes, he is less of an irritation that DJT, and he has a lot of good qualities.

I was really impressed by Vivek Ramaswamy. He stood his ground with the other NeoCon republican candidates and called them out for what they are. He also gave it back to the LameStream Media and confronted them on their lies, like "Russian Collusion", etc.

Ramaswamy is the son of immigrants, and a self made billionaire by founding a pharmaceutical company. So is he a tool of Big Pharma? You won't find out until someone like that gets into office.

DJT is a known quantity, we saw what he did when he got into office. He was undone because he made a lot of really poor picks, like Jeff Sessions and Bill Barr for AG, or Mike Pence for VP. The honest people in DC, like General Flynn, were destroyed before they got off the ground. He replaced Comey with Wray, another disaster - but are there that many "honest politicians" in DC?

If DJT does get back in as Prez, he would have to sack the entire top levels of the DC bureaucracy.

And get the FBI to investigate people that "bleach bit" their private servers with classified information on them - while under subpoena to give this illegal server to Congress. The FBI would also need to find who murdered Seth Rich, and why they won't release his laptop with a FOIA request.

The FBI would also have to investigate Hunter's laptop, Burisma, and the Bidens peddling influence to the Chinese for money - these are all serious crimes that are against the law - all the FBI has to do is to enforce the law equally on everyone. That would be the "end" of most of the DC politicians - just enforce the laws on them.

So the DC politicians of both parties will do anything to keep DJT out of office this time. Anything - because they know they might all go to jail.