The Surprising Geography of Gun Violence

[Ken]

Again, that map shows rates, not murderers. I’d rather be in a community that has one murderer running around killing 10 people, than the same community with 10 murderers killing one person apiece.

Find me a map that shows the murderer density per square mile.

Rates are actually relevant because most murders are not conducted by strangers. It is less than half and some statistics put the percentage as low as 10% of all murders conducted by complete strangers with no connection to the victim. https://www.newsnationnow.com/us-news/m ... strangers/

So the relevant question isn't how many people live around you. The relevant question is how many people do you know or have some connection to.

[RZehr]

Rates aren’t irrelevant, but they aren’t the only thing to consider at all. Obviously.

How come people don’t like living in high crime neighborhoods?
Because they are afraid of being victimized by one of their friends from a great neighborhood on the other side of the city?
How come mass shooters aren’t only feared by their family and friends?

And robberies? Thefts? Do or would, you like living where there are lots of robbers perfecting their craft?

In spite of my county seat being the most diverse city in the state of Oregon, the 26,000 person county itself has very few people. Not many people are wanting this diversity apparently.
Consequently, one homicide per year, would equal about 4 homicides 100,000. So the only way we could get lower than 4, is to have zero. Or three murders by the same person would come to 16/100,000. Either of which is possible in some years. And what is the apprehension rate here? Exactly how many are running around on the loose?

[Ken]

How come people don’t like living in high crime neighborhoods?

Good question.

Probably because all the myriad of factors that make them high-crime neighborhoods make them undesirable in hundreds of other ways as well. Crime is more of a symptom of decline rather than a cause of it.

[Josh]

How come people don’t like living in high crime neighborhoods?

Good question.

Probably because all the myriad of factors that make them high-crime neighborhoods make them undesirable in hundreds of other ways as well. Crime is more of a symptom of decline rather than a cause of it.

Murder and homicide, in particular, happen because someone chooses to kill someone else. It has nothing to do with “decline”. Some countries are quite poor and declining yet have a low murder rate. Others (like Brazil) are quite high.

A place declines once murders start happening, unchecked. People like myself who don’t want to be randomly murdered move away.

[RZehr]

I just stumbled across this.

2% of counties make up 51% of murders. And 54% of counties had 0 murders:
https://crimeresearch.org/2017/04/numbe ... -1-murder/

[Josh]

I just stumbled across this.

2% of counties make up 51% of murders. And 54% of counties had 0 murders:
https://crimeresearch.org/2017/04/numbe ... -1-murder/

That analysis is starting in the right direction, but it should be scaled for the population in each county.

[Ken]

County-by-county analyses have been done already using the same data from which RZehr's statistics came from

[JohnHurt]

Murders in US very concentrated: 54% of US counties in 2014 had zero murders, 2% of counties have 51% of the murders






https://crimeresearch.org/2017/04/numbe ... -1-murder/

The homicides, just like the drugs, homelessness, prostitution, etc. - these all concentrated in the Democrat run "hell hole" cities. You don't see that in the conservative areas.

Illinois is a good example. Rural Illinois is peaceful, but Chicago is skewing all of the numbers. Tennessee appears to have gun violence because of Memphis and Nashville, both cities run by Democrats.

Look at Portland, OR. Crime is rampant, and the city center is boarded up from all of the violence, and Portland is filled with homeless people on the street. Eastern Oregon is trying to secede, for good reason. Same with San Francisco, once a beautiful city, now ruined.

Or you can believe statistics from Politico, that there are gun homicides in rural areas, so we need to get rid of guns.

People are not being killed by guns every day in rural Tennessee. I live in rural Tennessee, and gun violence is never in the newspapers. It just doesn't happen. We are safe here, because everyone has a gun to protect them from criminals. I don't lock my doors at night. Criminals don't come here, as they would be killed. The criminals go to "gun free zones" in the Democrat cities like Nashville and Memphis, which is where they have all of the gun violence.

There are three kinds of lies: lies, condemned lies, and statistics. - Benjamin Disraeli

In the Democrat cities, it all depends on where you live, and how wealthy you are.

Murders in "gun free" DC are mostly on the "poorer" East side, with none around the Capitol area:



So inside each county, there are "hot spots". I grew up in Nashville, TN, and I know where in Nashville I am safe, and where I would be killed.

The most dangerous place you can be is in a "gun free" zone.

Audrey Hale, the "Nashville Shooter" shot up a gun free zone Christian school on March 27, 2023. She was a radicalized Leftist transsexual that was intent on killing Christian children because of their "white privilege'" . The Dept of Justice hid her manifesto for months, because they did not want us to know her motivations:
https://www.newsweek.com/nashville-shoo ... ow-1841207

So some of the "gun violence" is due to criminals, like this woman. And the police arrived too late for the people she killed.

As far as the other "high incidents of gun violence" I am certain that when your grandmother shoots a man trying to knife her to death, then that is also counted as being a "gun violence" or "gun homicide" incident. These people are very dishonest.

[Ken]

Look at Portland, OR. Crime is rampant, and the city center is boarded up from all of the violence, and Portland is filled with homeless people on the street. Eastern Oregon is trying to secede, for good reason. Same with San Francisco, once a beautiful city, now ruined.

I think you watch too much FOX news. There are more boarded up business districts in rural and Eastern Oregon than there are in Portland. And crime is an issue everywhere. Here is a violent crime map for Oregon for 2022



And here is violent crime and property crime rate comparison between Portland and some other cities in rural and eastern Oregon that are completely run by Republicans at the city and county level. And note, this is for Portland only and not any of the Portland-area suburbs which are all blue and all have far lower crime rates than much of rural Oregon.

[Josh]

Grants Pass has a major homeless problem (and drug problem and violence problem) - indeed, that's why there's currently a case pending before the Supreme Court of Grants Pass asking to be allowed to please enforce the law even if the criminal is a homeless person, which the 9th circuit has basically said they can't do.