Deportations of Immigrants

[Ernie]

Trump says he will deport millions of undocumented immigrants if elected this year. He said something similar when he was running for president in 2016.
https://apnews.com/article/trump-deport ... 074eceb874

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-admi ... 1560889871

Why did he only deport 287K in 2017, whenever Obama was deporting over 400K some years?
https://www.dhs.gov/ohss/topics/immigra ... 19/table39

How might Trump be able to deport millions if he gets another chance to be President? Or maybe he can't????

[barnhart]

I suspect P. Obama will keep his crown as "deporter in chief". Wild campaign promises are a key part of the Trump brand, but I don't think they point to actual policy, rather they serve as indicators of the voter demographic P. Trump is pursuing. Here are a few of his campaign promises from 2016:

Lock up Senator Clinton
Cancel all federal funds going into "sanctuary cities"
$550 billion infrastructure plan
Border wall that Mexico would pay for
Replace Obamacare
25 million new jobs created
He promised to be "the greatest jobs president God ever created"

I don't see a lot of actual policy there, but a lot of creating emotional bonds with frustrated voters.

[Bootstrap]

Why did he only deport 287K in 2017, whenever Obama was deporting over 400K some years?
https://www.dhs.gov/ohss/topics/immigra ... 19/table39

Often, the number of deportations depends on what is going on at the time.

I think this graph is helpful:



So is this:

[Josh]

Trump says he will deport millions of undocumented immigrants if elected this year. He said something similar when he was running for president in 2016.
https://apnews.com/article/trump-deport ... 074eceb874

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-admi ... 1560889871

Why did he only deport 287K in 2017, whenever Obama was deporting over 400K some years?
https://www.dhs.gov/ohss/topics/immigra ... 19/table39

How might Trump be able to deport millions if he gets another chance to be President? Or maybe he can't????

Probably because there was massive political opposition to Trump doing anything once he was in office. Whereas Obama never got much pushback from the left.

In any case, the idea of deporting millions of illegals is a pipe dream. That's why I think it would be better to focus on reducing the number of arrivals, and focus deportations on immigrants with criminal records and so on.

[Judas Maccabeus]

Trump says he will deport millions of undocumented immigrants if elected this year. He said something similar when he was running for president in 2016.
https://apnews.com/article/trump-deport ... 074eceb874

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-admi ... 1560889871

Why did he only deport 287K in 2017, whenever Obama was deporting over 400K some years?
https://www.dhs.gov/ohss/topics/immigra ... 19/table39

How might Trump be able to deport millions if he gets another chance to be President? Or maybe he can't????

Probably because there was massive political opposition to Trump doing anything once he was in office. Whereas Obama never got much pushback from the left.

In any case, the idea of deporting millions of illegals is a pipe dream. That's why I think it would be better to focus on reducing the number of arrivals, and focus deportations on immigrants with criminal records and so on.

However, if employment laws are rigidly enforced, self deportation may indeed be the answer.

[Ken]

Trump says he will deport millions of undocumented immigrants if elected this year. He said something similar when he was running for president in 2016.
https://apnews.com/article/trump-deport ... 074eceb874

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-admi ... 1560889871

Why did he only deport 287K in 2017, whenever Obama was deporting over 400K some years?
https://www.dhs.gov/ohss/topics/immigra ... 19/table39

How might Trump be able to deport millions if he gets another chance to be President? Or maybe he can't????

Probably because there was massive political opposition to Trump doing anything once he was in office. Whereas Obama never got much pushback from the left.

In any case, the idea of deporting millions of illegals is a pipe dream. That's why I think it would be better to focus on reducing the number of arrivals, and focus deportations on immigrants with criminal records and so on.

That's not the reason at all.

The reason that deportations dropped under Trump was because deportation is a legal process that requires immigration courts and immigration judges. Deportation orders require the signature of an immigration judge and deportees are legally entitled to a hearing in front of an immigration judge before being deported. However over the past decade or so, hiring of immigration judges has not remotely kept pace with immigration court caseloads. The same judges who hear deportation cases also year asylum claims and so forth. And the escalation of asylum claims in the past 5-6 years has overwhelmed the immigration courts. During the Obama Administration there were very few asylum claims at all compared to today or during the Trump Administration.

Trump can hold his breath until he is blue in the face but unless there are vastly more immigration judges, deportations will not increase, nor will asylum hearings.

Look at the dysfunctional Federal budgeting process over the past decade for hints as to why increased funding hasn't gone to this objective. In fact, just this week the word coming out of the House is that they are likely going to be unable to pass any individual budget bills for 2024 (which is where you would increase funding for this sort of thing). Instead they are likely to just extend continuing resolutions until the end of 2024 which, according to the budget compromise reached over the debt deal will mean an across the board 1% reduction in Federal spending. So less money towards immigration judges in 2024 than in 2023.

[Josh]

America has somewhere between 10 and 20 million illegal aliens. The idea of deporting even a fraction of them is rather ridiculous.

Particularly when arrivals are pushing 1 to 3 million (depending on who you ask and what data you like). Deport 1 million and then, what, get an extra 1 million coming back in? Not to mention the humanitarian disaster of trying to relocate that many people.

I agree with Ken that the federal bureaucracy is sclerotic and unable to process things on a reasonable timeframe - although I wouldn’t agree Congress and funding is to blame. The federal government has massive resources. It’s just not a priority. Getting a passport replaced or a birth certificate report of birth abroad (which I need to do) from the Secretary of State is ridiculously slow.

Meanwhile at the state level I can get a Real ID on the spot at a BMV with no waiting in line, or a business licence and permits done with a 1 day turnaround. Birth certificate? On the spot in person or within a day by mail.

[Ken]

America has somewhere between 10 and 20 million illegal aliens. The idea of deporting even a fraction of them is rather ridiculous.

Particularly when arrivals are pushing 1 to 3 million (depending on who you ask and what data you like). Deport 1 million and then, what, get an extra 1 million coming back in? Not to mention the humanitarian disaster of trying to relocate that many people.

I agree with Ken that the federal bureaucracy is sclerotic and unable to process things on a reasonable timeframe - although I wouldn’t agree Congress and funding is to blame. The federal government has massive resources. It’s just not a priority. Getting a passport replaced or a birth certificate report of birth abroad (which I need to do) from the Secretary of State is ridiculously slow.

Meanwhile at the state level I can get a Real ID on the spot at a BMV with no waiting in line, or a business licence and permits done with a 1 day turnaround.

There are something like 600 immigration judges total in the US right now. They are spread all around the country at all the borders including even places like Alaska.

We would need something like 6000 to even start making a dent. But that means building more courthouses, hiring lots more staff. They need bailiffs, assistants, aids, receptionists, guards, custodians, archivists, tech support, etc. etc. So maybe 5 people for every immigration judge and that's just a wild guess, maybe the ratio is even higher. So maybe we are talking about hiring 30 to 50 thousand new people just for immigration courts if we are going to dent the current numbers.

50,000 new people and all the real estate and infrastructure to support them is going to cost a lot of money. They probably don't need to build any new buildings. Downtowns across the US are full of vacant office buildings. So it would just be a matter of leasing space in the big cities around the country. But if we are talking 50,000 new Federal employees. The average cost of a Federal FTE is maybe $150,000/year for all costs (wages, benefits, pensions, health insurance, travel, training, etc. So 50,000 new employees X $150,000 equals $7.5 billion just for employee costs alone. Ad in all the costs for office space, tech infrastructure, etc. and we are probably looking at double that, maybe way more. I'm just spit-balling here.

Instead we are actually cutting budgets due to our dysfunctional Congress.

The Biden Administration requested about $1.5 billion for immigration courts in FY2024 which is a 68% increase from FY2022, the last time there was an actual budget. Instead we have just been rolling the 2022 numbers forward through continuing resolutions in 2023 and now again in 2024 with mandatory 1% cuts. The FY2022 number was $891 million and that is the number that keeps getting rolled forward every time Congress does a continuing resolution and doesn't pass actual budget bills, and it keeps getting smaller and smaller due to inflation.

And yes, Congress is to blame. Biden is not a dictator. Congress actually passes budgets and Biden can't just move billions of dollars from one part of the budget to another. He can't, for example, take money from farm programs or flood control or from highway funding or Medicare and dump it into immigration courts. Trump tried to do that with funding for his wall and was slapped down by the courts.

[ohio jones]

So less money towards immigration judges in 2024 than in 2023.

Maybe we need someone skilled in the art of the deal.

[Josh]

Just conduct the proceedings over Zoom. That’s how most local courts are operating these days.

I did a project for a nearby prison 2 decades ago setting up video links for people in immigration detention, who were being held at contract jails operated by county level governments. They would conduct a video arraignment and other procedural stuff (if the detainee consented, which they almost always did) as opposed to flying in handcuffs from Podunkville, IA to somewhere near DC, saying “Yes I’m guilty”, and then flying back.