Is Trump legally qualified to be a presidential candidate?

[temporal1]

prior to the 2016, the fear-mongering about DJT was epic.
it affected me. i did not know. i was “just waiting” for North Korea to bomb the U.S. West Coast.

i’m not buying into it this time. no way.

“fool me once” ..

[Ken]

Both Biden and Trump will be lame ducks if they win this November. Neither one will be running again in 2028 because whoever wins will be in their 2nd term.

I'm sure this is true for Biden - but, based on what I've seen, I'm not convinced that Trump will ever willingly leave office. There have been many autocratic strong-men in the world who have succeeded in circumventing term limits - and I am less convinced than ever that the US political system is strong enough to withstand such an attempt, especially when one of the major parties becomes an enabler.

Should he be re-elected, his term of office will end on January 20, 2029. After that, if no other president is inaugurated, the office of the presidency goes to the Speaker of the House. Trump's presidency will simply end.

He simply won't be president anymore. And his entire cabinet will also see their terms automatically expire meaning that career undersecretaries would then take power. Say, for example, you are Trump's secretary of state. On January 20, 2029 all some career tech support person has to do is cancel your keycard access, turn off your government cell phone remotely, and turn off your email account and internet access. Same for all political appointees that you may have larded the department with. They are suddenly civilians with no access. And legally, the authority to do anything falls back down the chain of command until it reaches the first permanent (non-political appointee) employee within the department. It will be extremely difficult to be an autocrat when the entire apparatus of the Federal government is no longer taking your phone calls or following your orders. Which is one reason why people should support a nonpartisan professional civil service over a partisan one that changes from administration to administration.

There will be elections in 2028. The parties will hold primaries in every state. And there will be a general election. If Trump is president he will not be on the ballot. The constitution may be ambiguous about the 14th Amendment. But it is not ambiguous about serving only two terms in office.

The way that strong men around the world have circumvented term limits is by getting a compliant legislature or parliament to change the law to accommodate them. That is how Putin did it. That avenue isn't going to be open to Trump because he doesn't have a stranglehold over Congress or the 3/4ths of state legislatures that would be required to ratify such an amendment.

[Ken]

obama was much worse in his second, “nothing to lose,” term.

I challenge you to name one consequential policy change that came out of Obama's second term. Just one.

Everything of consequence in the Obama Administration happened in his first term which is when he had majorities in both houses of Congress.

The stimulus, bank bailouts, auto company bailouts, etc. were all early in his first term or extensions of policies from the end of the Bush Admin.
The Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) was passed in early 2010
Dodd-Frank financial reforms and the Consumer Financial Protection Act which established the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) passed early in his first term in 2009.
Both of his SCOTUS appointees (Kagan and Sotomayor) were nominated and confirmed in his first term
Withdrawal from Iraq was in his first term

Democrats lost control of the House in 2010 and control of the Senate in 2012 and for Obama's entire second term he was operating with a hostile Congress. With Mitch McConnell running the Senate and John Boehner running the House nothing meaningful was coming out of Congress except the most universally bipartisan stuff like renewal of FISA. Mostly it was just endless budget battles between the GOP Congress and Dem Administration with endless threats of shutdowns and negotiated spending caps. His major foreign policy initiative was the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and he couldn't get that ratified by Congress so it died. I would suggest that there is nothing much that Obama will be remembered for that happened in his second term. He couldn't even get his second term Supreme Court nominee to even receive a hearing, much less get confirmed.

[Josh]

Ken,

The Affordable Care Act destroyed my health plan that cost $100/mo and now we get $1000/mo plans with &12,000 deductibles and horrible employer plans.

So that was one policy change.

Pharma stock prices have gone way up, and health insurers consolidated and earned even bigger profits. That’s another policy change.

[Ken]

Ken,

The Affordable Care Act destroyed my health plan that cost $100/mo and now we get $1000/mo plans with &12,000 deductibles and horrible employer plans.

So that was one policy change.

Pharma stock prices have gone way up, and health insurers consolidated and earned even bigger profits. That’s another policy change.

All of that happened in Obama's first term, not his second. The ACA was passed in March 2010, just 2 years into his first term.

My point was that going all the way back to Nixon, every president who served two terms got most or all of their consequential policy done in the first term. The only thing Nixon was known for in his 2nd term was Watergate. The only thing Clinton was known for in his 2nd term was Monica Lewinsky and Impeachment. The only thing Reagan was known for in his 2nd term was Iran-Contra. The only thing Bush was known for in his 2nd term was Katrina and the financial collapse. The only thing Obama was known for in his 2nd term was stalemates with Congress and failure to confirm his SCOTUS nominee.

So no matter who wins this fall, Biden or Trump. They will both be in their 2nd terms. And based on past history I don't expect much of consequence to get done one way or the other. They will both be instant lame ducks. People will almost immediately start looking forward to 2028.

I also think that whichever party loses this fall will have the wind behind their backs in 2028 since whether it is Trump or Biden, people will be ready for change.

[Josh]

Certainly an interesting take. By your logic, everyone should just sit out incumbent terms then.

[Ken]

Certainly an interesting take. By your logic, everyone should just sit out incumbent terms then.

I'm not saying that at all.

What I am saying is that I think most of the hand-wringing on the left and right about 2nd Biden term or a 2nd Trump term is probably misplaced. I don't think either of them will accomplish much good or bad that is consequential and will largely operate caretaker governments as the country starts to gear up almost immediately for what will be a much more consequential watershed election in 2028 when all the candidates will be new and younger.

And the fact that I doubt either of them will accomplish much over the next 4 years means that the party that loses in 2024 will have the wind at their backs and will be heavily favored going into 2028.

Feel free to disagree with me if you want. Which 2nd term presidency in the past 50 years was consequential? You probably have to go all the way back to FDR to find a 2nd and in his case, a 3rd term that was enormously consequential. Eisenhower passed the Interstate Highway Act during the beginning of his 2nd term and then after that was basically in caretaker mode. All of his big stuff was mostly first term as well.

[Josh]

In other words, the permanent federal government will be in charge, and it makes no difference who is elected President?

[Ken]

In other words, the permanent federal government will be in charge, and it makes no difference who is elected President?

No. We are a country of laws and the executive branch is tasked with implementing the laws as passed by Congress. And following them. It is not the plaything of whatever president wins office to order around as he or she sees fit.

If a president wants to implement different policies he needs to go to Congress and pass legislation that both authorize and fund the policies that he wants to implement. Generally speaking that is a difficult thing to accomplish during second terms. And that has always been the case. That is how our system of government is structured.

We don't elect dictators.

What that means is that Biden can't just do whatever he wants with respect to Federal policy and neither can Trump.

[JimFoxvog]

Ya, in a year or so we will probably have both incorrigibility AND senility. No matter which one wins.

I think Biden's "senility" has been greatly exaggerated. Yes, Trump often seems to have lost his mental abilities.

Here's one article on Biden. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2 ... oe-biden-/