Is Trump legally qualified to be a presidential candidate?

[Ken]

In some ways, the most important thing is that the supreme Court has spoken. And spoken unanimously.

We can have different feelings about that, but there needs to be a set of rules that everybody is playing by.

Agreed - it's not a perfect system, but the law, as established by American society, has made a final ruling on Trump's eligibility to be on the ballot. So now it is up to the voters to decide DJ Trump's eligibility to serve another term.

Policies aside, it seems the US is left with a choice between incorrigibility and senility.

Ya, in a year or so we will probably have both incorrigibility AND senility. No matter which one wins.

Both Biden and Trump will be lame ducks if they win this November. Neither one will be running again in 2028 because whoever wins will be in their 2nd term.

So I predict that neither will get any sort of "honeymoon" period and the national press and Congress will shift in a matter of months to handicapping and positioning for the 2028 election.

Within months and certainly by mid-2025 the press will be obsessing over which young Dems and GOPers are positioning themselves to win in 2028. We already have Nikki Haley but there will be a bunch more. And on the Dem side it is completely wide-open. I don't think Harris will be viewed as the presumptive front-runner but there will be a whole bunch of Dem Governors and Senators tossing their hats in the ring, or very coyly giving non-denial answers about whether they are running. So all the focus will be shifting away from Biden/Trump and what comes next.

Likewise, I don't see either Biden or Trump having a complete trifecta in Congress to pass any major legislation. The House will be a tossup and the Senate will be close to 50/50 which will prevent passage of any major legislation due to the filibuster. So about all Congress is likely to get done is kick the can down the road with budget rollovers and continuing resolutions to keep things open. But no major changes. Especially since Senators on both sides of the aisle will be gearing up for a 2028 run and therefore will be posturing for primary votes and not particularly interested in solving problems in a bipartisan way that could be used against them in 2028.

So basically we will be in "caretaker" mode at the Federal level and just biding time until the 2028 campaign starts in earnest. Absent any major national or international emergency that shakes things up like another COVID or big events like Katrina or another war.

So how much does it matter who wins? In my mind, not nearly as much as most people think. Neither Biden nor Trump are going to be in a position to make much in the way of lasting changes. That requires Congress. Trump is using lots of ridiculous rhetoric about the things he is going to do, but most of what he is shouting about requires either legislation or is flatly illegal and will be shot down by the courts. For example, using nationalizing the National Guard to go door-to-door to apprehend illegal immigrants. Not going to happen. Nor is he going escalate deportations without major new investments in immigration courts which Congress is unwilling to do. I don't see Democrats jumping up to fix things for Trump when Republicans are currently refusing to do it for Biden.

So pencil 2028 on your calendars. That will be the watershed election that sets the tone for the future of the country for the next decade and beyond.

Of course what do I know? The next presidential term could be hugely consequential. But I doubt it. Presidents really don't have that much power. At least not the power to make any lasting changes on their own. And not much usually happens in presidential 2nd terms.

[ohio jones]

Especially since Senators on both sides of the aisle will be gearing up for a 2028 run and therefore will be posturing for primary votes and not particularly interested in solving problems in a bipartisan way that could be used against them in 2028.

So we are just skipping over 2026, with a third of the senate on the ballot?

[RZehr]

Agreed - it's not a perfect system, but the law, as established by American society, has made a final ruling on Trump's eligibility to be on the ballot. So now it is up to the voters to decide DJ Trump's eligibility to serve another term.

Policies aside, it seems the US is left with a choice between incorrigibility and senility.

Ya, in a year or so we will probably have both incorrigibility AND senility. No matter which one wins.

Both Biden and Trump will be lame ducks if they win this November. Neither one will be running again in 2028 because whoever wins will be in their 2nd term.

So I predict that neither will get any sort of "honeymoon" period and the national press and Congress will shift in a matter of months to handicapping and positioning for the 2028 election.

Within months and certainly by mid-2025 the press will be obsessing over which young Dems and GOPers are positioning themselves to win in 2028. We already have Nikki Haley but there will be a bunch more. And on the Dem side it is completely wide-open. I don't think Harris will be viewed as the presumptive front-runner but there will be a whole bunch of Dem Governors and Senators tossing their hats in the ring, or very coyly giving non-denial answers about whether they are running. So all the focus will be shifting away from Biden/Trump and what comes next.

Likewise, I don't see either Biden or Trump having a complete trifecta in Congress to pass any major legislation. The House will be a tossup and the Senate will be close to 50/50 which will prevent passage of any major legislation due to the filibuster. So about all Congress is likely to get done is kick the can down the road with budget rollovers and continuing resolutions to keep things open. But no major changes. Especially since Senators on both sides of the aisle will be gearing up for a 2028 run and therefore will be posturing for primary votes and not particularly interested in solving problems in a bipartisan way that could be used against them in 2028.

So basically we will be in "caretaker" mode at the Federal level and just biding time until the 2028 campaign starts in earnest. Absent any major national or international emergency that shakes things up like another COVID or big events like Katrina or another war.

So how much does it matter who wins? In my mind, not nearly as much as most people think. Neither Biden nor Trump are going to be in a position to make much in the way of lasting changes. That requires Congress. Trump is using lots of ridiculous rhetoric about the things he is going to do, but most of what he is shouting about requires either legislation or is flatly illegal and will be shot down by the courts. For example, using nationalizing the National Guard to go door-to-door to apprehend illegal immigrants. Not going to happen. Nor is he going escalate deportations without major new investments in immigration courts which Congress is unwilling to do. I don't see Democrats jumping up to fix things for Trump when Republicans are currently refusing to do it for Biden.

So pencil 2028 on your calendars. That will be the watershed election that sets the tone for the future of the country for the next decade and beyond.

Of course what do I know? The next presidential term could be hugely consequential. But I doubt it. Presidents really don't have that much power. At least not the power to make any lasting changes on their own. And not much usually happens in presidential 2nd terms.

You mean that Trump is unlikely to become a dictator for life and that he isn't going to change the constitutional term limits after all?

[Ken]

Especially since Senators on both sides of the aisle will be gearing up for a 2028 run and therefore will be posturing for primary votes and not particularly interested in solving problems in a bipartisan way that could be used against them in 2028.

So we are just skipping over 2026, with a third of the senate on the ballot?

Of course there will be elections in 2026. But that doesn't mean the Senate is going to accomplish anything absent one party or the other having a 60 vote majority and being the same party as the House and President. What the Senate is very good at is doing nothing. And there tendency to do nothing increases the closer we get to presidential elections when lots of Senators are trying to run for president.

Major legislation almost NEVER happens during the second term of a presidency. Didn't happen in Obama's second term, not in Bush's, not in Clinton's, and not in Reagan's. Mostly there were just endless budget fights and gridlock. Which is what I'd predict for 2025-2028.

[Ken]

You mean that Trump is unlikely to become a dictator for life and that he isn't going to change the constitutional term limits after all?

I don't think he even wants to be. I don't think Trump has much of an agenda to do anything other than (1) stay out of prison, (2) take revenge on his perceived enemies, and (3) build his fortune.

I suspect that all the people who think he will be focused on anything else such as policy are going to be disappointed. He won't be running for office again so won't be focused on issues that were mostly just campaign slogans like immigration or restructuring of the Federal bureaucracy, which will require legislation. He will be golfing and tweeting and doing lots of schmoozing and that is about it.

I honestly don't think it matters who wins this election nearly as much as many people think. Biden will be TRYING to accomplish lots of things but will be stymied on most or all of it by an obstructionist Congress. Trump won't be trying to do all that much and won't have a cooperative Congress either. Most of the policy fights will be budgetary and that is mostly Congress and will be the same no matter who wins. So they will land at basically the same point but coming from different directions.

2028 will be the big watershed election, not this one. And paradoxically, the party that wins in 2024 will likely be at a disadvantage in 2028 since they will be the incumbent party and people always want change. Especially since there won't be an incumbent president with the power of incumbency.
Whoever wins in 2024, people will be generally sick of them by 2028.

At least that is how I see things. Who knows. Presidents don't really matter as much as most people think. They matter in their ability to get major legislation through a pliant Congress but that is almost always just a first-term thing. All the consequential things we associate with past presidents happened in their first terms, almost without exception.

[RZehr]

And then there is foreign policy.

[Ken]

And then there is foreign policy.

True. But most Americans don't care all that much about foreign policy except as it pertains to spending. And spending is under the control of Congress, not the president. Whether or not Ukraine or Israel get US aid is really more up to Congress. I think the ability of the US to control or even influence world events is waning.

Sure the president can do some things like tariffs and Trump did a lot of those. But even alliances largely require confirmation or ratification by Congress. Trump could try to do things like temporarily withdraw the US from NATO. But I suspect that sort of thing would be obstructed by Congress and even if there was a temporary hiatus of cooperation with NATO, any future president would just resume membership.

Anything one president can do without the consent of Congress, the next president can just as easily reverse. The only permanent changes are those accomplished through legislation (Obamacare, tax cuts, major treaties and alliances like NAFTA or NATO, etc.).

[Dan Z]

Some are able to remain spry and sharp to their end.
Some i’ve had the honor of knowing.

Some start losing their faculties young. i had the pain of experiencing. Science is working on it.

No quick+final answers to it, not yet. No matter how wanted.

I think this is a good point. On the face of it, both of these candidates are doing relatively well considering their age. I'd hope to be as sharp in my upper 70s or lower 80s.

[Dan Z]

Both Biden and Trump will be lame ducks if they win this November. Neither one will be running again in 2028 because whoever wins will be in their 2nd term.

I'm sure this is true for Biden - but, based on what I've seen, I'm not convinced that Trump will ever willingly leave office. There have been many autocratic strong-men in the world who have succeeded in circumventing term limits - and I am less convinced than ever that the US political system is strong enough to withstand such an attempt, especially when one of the major parties becomes an enabler.

[temporal1]

I'm sure this is true for Biden - but, based on what I've seen, I'm not convinced that Trump will ever willingly leave office. There have been many autocratic strong-men in the world who have succeeded in circumventing term limits - and I am less convinced than ever that the US political system is strong enough to withstand such an attempt, especially when one of the major parties becomes an enabler.

obama was much worse in his second, “nothing to lose,” term.

biden-obama is in his 3rd term in the White House. i’ve had more than enough.

DJT should have enjoyed a cake walk to his second term. i’m surprised he’s interested in doing it this way.
i don’t object. i do not fear DJT. i don’t fear him trying to find a work around like the biden-obama people did.

hopefully, he will retire in peace, having put more good in place that others can benefit from and continue, like the USSC justices; helping people understand, they can live better without killing their babies, mutilating their children; and greatly reduced military action. (awful things like that) Conservatives have a deep bench, competent younger people of all backgrounds.

DJT has a good short list for VP.

DJT is a very imperfect guy.
Weird that his competition is so much worse. To me, that’s the really weird part.

There is only much worse behind biden-obama. i’m sorry. i had nothing to do with who they are, what they’re about.
i don’t recognize them.

nor for conservatives. i recognize conservative motivations better.