Ohio's Issue #1 and Abortion Politics: Are we learning anything?

[Jazman]

A majority of Ohioans want the state constitution to stay as easily amendable as currently possible... therefore making it easier in Nov to codify abortion rights into the state constitution via the ballot (referendum slated for Nov elections). I'd rather not discuss 'woe-is-us' or 'woe to those people...' grievances here: I'm more interested in hearing what people have learned, realized, grasped regarding abortion politics in the year or so since the overturning of Roe... and what they might do about it or advise others (especially the politically active or obsessed) should do about it...

Maybe this quote from a pro-life political advisor/activist/consultant? might help kick this off.
"“We’re going to have to live with messier compromises going forward or risk this happening again and again,” said Patrick Brown, a fellow at the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center who called Tuesday’s result a “five-alarm fire for the pro-life movement.”

“Some think that only a total ban is acceptable. But we see, over and over again, that such an uncompromising position doesn’t have support. There’s no political appetite for that,” he said." (Politico - ALICE MIRANDA OLLSTEIN)

[Valerie]

A customer a couple of months or so agp was at my register buying 4 newspaper. I didn't know her but she was proudly announcing "we" were successful to get the "reproductive rights" act on the November ballot. So hard for me to be quiet because it is so upsetting to know this "reproductive rights" amendment is really a vote to allow OH women to have an abortion THROUGH the ninth month of pregnancy.

Before this the heartbeat bill was finally passed.

The overturn of Roe V Wade last year angered many men & women. Ugly protests began on our town's public square.

It was apparent this anger prompted a bow worse act in OH under the guise of reproduction rights.

What did we learn?

Satan was angry Rie V Wade was overturned. "I will show you!" says he & his demonic realm through the voters to destroy children in the womb even up till birth. We learned revenge is UT. We learned that people would rather destroy life than have I timacy according to God's plan.

I saw such a turnout obviously meant emotions were high, rights were threatened, the idea that 50 +1 would make the amendment pass in Nov. They feel that strong about it.

[Ken]

One of the seminal events of the first decade of this century was the Iraq War. Neocons spent over a decade obsessing with toppling Saddam Hussein and in the wake of 9-11 they finally had their chance. One of the most striking things about that war was that the neocons who fomented the war seemed to have no plan at all for what to do next. Not that they had a bad plan, they seemed to have no plan at all for what to do on the next day after Saddam was toppled. And so we have had two decades of chaos in the region since: from the initial insurrection, to the rise of ISIS, and to some extent the civil war in Syria.

The pro-life movement seems to be in a somewhat similar place. After decades of campaigning in the courts to overturn Roe there seems to be little notion of what to do next. Yes it is easy enough to pass restrictive laws prohibiting abortion in red states that are under complete Republican rule. That is the stick. But where are the policies and ideas to foster an actual culture of life? To support women with alternatives to abortion? They are largely lacking. You can't replace something with nothing. That didn't work in Iraq and it doesn't seem to be working here domestically. Every successful policy contains both carrots and sticks. Right now all a lot of people are seeing is the stick. And so we see results like in Ohio. Personally I think the long-term success of the pro-life movement is going to depend on developing a better combination of carrots and sticks. Americans as a general rule really do not like sticks. Whether it is vaccine mandates or restrictions on gas stoves to cite a couple random recent examples. They much prefer carrots.

[Valerie]

One of the seminal events of the first decade of this century was the Iraq War. Neocons spent over a decade obsessing with toppling Saddam Hussein and in the wake of 9-11 they finally had their chance. One of the most striking things about that war was that the neocons who fomented the war seemed to have no plan at all for what to do next. Not that they had a bad plan, they seemed to have no plan at all for what to do on the next day after Saddam was toppled. And so we have had two decades of chaos in the region since: from the initial insurrection, to the rise of ISIS, and to some extent the civil war in Syria.

The pro-life movement seems to be in a somewhat similar place. After decades of campaigning in the courts to overturn Roe there seems to be little notion of what to do next. Yes it is easy enough to pass restrictive laws prohibiting abortion in red states that are under complete Republican rule. That is the stick. But where are the policies and ideas to foster an actual culture of life? To support women with alternatives to abortion? They are largely lacking. You can't replace something with nothing. That didn't work in Iraq and it doesn't seem to be working here domestically. Every successful policy contains both carrots and sticks. Right now all a lot of people are seeing is the stick. And so we see results like in Ohio. Personally I think the long-term success of the pro-life movement is going to depend on developing a better combination of carrots and sticks.

There are Pregnancy Crisis centers all over America that sprang up just for that purpose. The one in my town offers SO much help to both girls/women & boys/men in numerous ways. Planned Parenthood tries to hurt these "ministries" of help.
Why?

Here is the one in our town:

https://www.oasisofmedina.com/

[Ken]

One of the seminal events of the first decade of this century was the Iraq War. Neocons spent over a decade obsessing with toppling Saddam Hussein and in the wake of 9-11 they finally had their chance. One of the most striking things about that war was that the neocons who fomented the war seemed to have no plan at all for what to do next. Not that they had a bad plan, they seemed to have no plan at all for what to do on the next day after Saddam was toppled. And so we have had two decades of chaos in the region since: from the initial insurrection, to the rise of ISIS, and to some extent the civil war in Syria.

The pro-life movement seems to be in a somewhat similar place. After decades of campaigning in the courts to overturn Roe there seems to be little notion of what to do next. Yes it is easy enough to pass restrictive laws prohibiting abortion in red states that are under complete Republican rule. That is the stick. But where are the policies and ideas to foster an actual culture of life? To support women with alternatives to abortion? They are largely lacking. You can't replace something with nothing. That didn't work in Iraq and it doesn't seem to be working here domestically. Every successful policy contains both carrots and sticks. Right now all a lot of people are seeing is the stick. And so we see results like in Ohio. Personally I think the long-term success of the pro-life movement is going to depend on developing a better combination of carrots and sticks.

There are Pregnancy Crisis centers all over America that sprang up just for that purpose. The one in my town offers SO much help to both girls/women & boys/men in numerous ways. Planned Parenthood tries to hurt these "ministries" of help.
Why?

Here is the o e in our town:

https://www.oasisofmedina.com/

They are a tiny drop in the bucket compared to the actual costs and burdens of raising a child to adulthood if you are a single pregnant mother. You can't accomplish that through volunteer charities. It takes actual public policy in areas such as child and maternal healthcare, subsidized or free public childcare and after school programs for working mothers, better educational opportunities, better policies for family leave in the workplace, and so forth.

My point is that the GOVERNMENT is taking away women's choice to have an abortion. What is the GOVERNMENT doing to replace that option with other alternatives? Largely nothing. For millions of young single women, having a child is basically a sentence to poverty. It doesn't have to be that way.

Again, this is just my take on why we are seeing results like in Ohio. It is because Americans like carrots a lot more than sticks regardless of what kind of law or policy you are talking about. And to date, public policy around abortion has been all stick with carrots nowhere to be seen.

[Josh]

Constitutional amendments with a 50% popular vote are a disaster. In California, Uber, Lyft, and DoorDash ramrodded through an amendment gutting sensible labour and wage laws - and spent over $100 million making sure that amendment got passed.

In my own state, out of state special interest money is pouring in. I don’t think out of state special interests trying to make abortion legal in all 3 trimesters is a good thing. Do any of you?

[Ken]

Constitutional amendments with a 50% popular vote are a disaster. In California, Uber, Lyft, and DoorDash ramrodded through an amendment gutting sensible labour and wage laws - and spent over $100 million making sure that amendment got passed.

In my own state, out of state special interest money is pouring in. I don’t think out of state special interests trying to make abortion legal in all 3 trimesters is a good thing. Do any of you?

Did you feel the same way when Proposition 8 passed in California outlaying gay marriage? Or when Issue 1 was passed in Ohio in 2004 doing the same exact thing? With a flood of out-of-state special interest money supporting both of those ballot measures? https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna28985504

Personally I tend to dislike ballot measures but when you have gerrymandered one-party rule in states like California and Ohio they do represent a more democratic alternative to a one-party state legislature.

[Josh]

Maybe this quote from a pro-life political advisor/activist/consultant? might help kick this off.
"“We’re going to have to live with messier compromises going forward or risk this happening again and again,” said Patrick Brown, a fellow at the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center who called Tuesday’s result a “five-alarm fire for the pro-life movement.”

“Some think that only a total ban is acceptable. But we see, over and over again, that such an uncompromising position doesn’t have support. There’s no political appetite for that,” he said." (Politico - ALICE MIRANDA OLLSTEIN)

Sounds like what a lot of people said in 1860 about ending slavery.

[Josh]

Did you feel the same way when Proposition 8 passed in California outlaying gay marriage? Or when Issue 1 was passed in Ohio in 2004 doing the same exact thing? With a flood of out-of-state special interest money supporting both of those ballot measures? https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna28985504

I was a heavily involved activist campaigning against Prop. 8 and organised phone banks for the No On 8 campaign.

Personally I tend to dislike ballot measures but when you have gerrymandered one-party rule in states like California and Ohio they do represent a more democratic alternative to a one-party state legislature.

Neither state is gerrymandered. California simply elects a majority of Democrats because that’s what the electorate is.

Ohio elects a majority of Republicans. The only “gerrymandered” districts are a handful that are guaranteed to be majority black because of the voting rights act, which results in very odd districts since Ohio is not very segregated.

[Ken]

Did you feel the same way when Proposition 8 passed in California outlaying gay marriage? Or when Issue 1 was passed in Ohio in 2004 doing the same exact thing? With a flood of out-of-state special interest money supporting both of those ballot measures? https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna28985504

I was a heavily involved activist campaigning against Prop. 8 and organised phone banks for the No On 8 campaign.

Personally I tend to dislike ballot measures but when you have gerrymandered one-party rule in states like California and Ohio they do represent a more democratic alternative to a one-party state legislature.

Neither state is gerrymandered. California simply elects a majority of Democrats because that’s what the electorate is.

Ohio elects a majority of Republicans. The only “gerrymandered” districts are a handful that are guaranteed to be majority black because of the voting rights act, which results in very odd districts since Ohio is not very segregated.

Ohio votes under extreme gerrymandering: https://publicintegrity.org/politics/el ... publicans/

The Princeton Gerrymandering Project gives Ohio an F: https://gerrymander.princeton.edu/redis ... NqPYEZsTtz

Based on the last election, Ohio is a 53.27% Republican, 45.24% Democratic state. However the Ohio Senate is distributed 26 Republicans, 7 Democrats, and the Ohio House is distributed 67 Republicans, 32 Democrats. That is the result of gerrymandering. California is not much different.

When gerrymandering produces such lopsided results in the state legislature, don't be surprised when voters object to seeing their power stripped away through the referendum process.

That is kind of my larger point. The Ohio legislature can go all "stick" if it wants when it comes to abortion. That is essentially what they have done. They have the votes to do it. But don't be surprised when people react negatively.