Re: Is Trump legally qualified to be a presidential candidate?
Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2024 7:21 pm
About the part of your post that I underlined:Ken wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2024 1:41 pmBoth Biden and Trump will be lame ducks if they win this November. Neither one will be running again in 2028 because whoever wins will be in their 2nd term.
So I predict that neither will get any sort of "honeymoon" period and the national press and Congress will shift in a matter of months to handicapping and positioning for the 2028 election.
Within months and certainly by mid-2025 the press will be obsessing over which young Dems and GOPers are positioning themselves to win in 2028. We already have Nikki Haley but there will be a bunch more. And on the Dem side it is completely wide-open. I don't think Harris will be viewed as the presumptive front-runner but there will be a whole bunch of Dem Governors and Senators tossing their hats in the ring, or very coyly giving non-denial answers about whether they are running. So all the focus will be shifting away from Biden/Trump and what comes next.
Likewise, I don't see either Biden or Trump having a complete trifecta in Congress to pass any major legislation. The House will be a tossup and the Senate will be close to 50/50 which will prevent passage of any major legislation due to the filibuster. So about all Congress is likely to get done is kick the can down the road with budget rollovers and continuing resolutions to keep things open. But no major changes. Especially since Senators on both sides of the aisle will be gearing up for a 2028 run and therefore will be posturing for primary votes and not particularly interested in solving problems in a bipartisan way that could be used against them in 2028.
So basically we will be in "caretaker" mode at the Federal level and just biding time until the 2028 campaign starts in earnest. Absent any major national or international emergency that shakes things up like another COVID or big events like Katrina or another war.
So how much does it matter who wins? In my mind, not nearly as much as most people think. Neither Biden nor Trump are going to be in a position to make much in the way of lasting changes. That requires Congress. Trump is using lots of ridiculous rhetoric about the things he is going to do, but most of what he is shouting about requires either legislation or is flatly illegal and will be shot down by the courts. For example, using nationalizing the National Guard to go door-to-door to apprehend illegal immigrants. Not going to happen. Nor is he going escalate deportations without major new investments in immigration courts which Congress is unwilling to do. I don't see Democrats jumping up to fix things for Trump when Republicans are currently refusing to do it for Biden.
So pencil 2028 on your calendars. That will be the watershed election that sets the tone for the future of the country for the next decade and beyond.
Of course what do I know? The next presidential term could be hugely consequential. But I doubt it. Presidents really don't have that much power. At least not the power to make any lasting changes on their own. And not much usually happens in presidential 2nd terms.
Presidents may not really have that much power to impact border policy? That may explain Trumps lack of success. It appears to me that the real power to impact border policy might be held in the clammy grip of ex-Presidents. For reference see how he torpedoed the recent border legislation that the Republicans negotiated with the sitting President. Ex-Presidents, not Presidents are the ones with power.