Iran - Israel War? Iran's state-run news agency says Iran has fired ballistic missiles at targets inside Israel

[RZehr]

Iran says it has launched ballistic missiles as part of its attack targeting Israel.

The state-run IRNA news agency quoted an anonymous official saying ballistic missiles were part of the attack.

Already, slow-moving Shahed-136 bomb-carrying drones have been seen in the skies over Iran. However, those are more easily shot down.

A ballistic missile moves on an arch trajectory, heading up into space before gravity brings the weapon down at a speed several times faster than the speed of sound.

Israel has missile defense systems capable of targeting ballistic missiles. However, in a massive attack involving multiple drones and missiles like the campaign launched late Saturday by Iran, the likelihood of a strike making it through is higher.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. The previous story is below.

Iran launched dozens of drones toward Israel late Saturday, Israeli and Iranian officials confirmed, on an unprecedented revenge mission that pushed the Middle East ever closer to a regionwide war.

Israel's military said over 100 drones had been fired but that its air defenses were prepared for the attack and it was ready to respond. The U.S., with its large troop presence in the region, said it would provide unspecified support to Israel.

“We are monitoring the threat,” the Israeli military’s spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, announced in a nationwide television address, saying it would take several hours for the drones to reach Israel. The Israeli military said it could not confirm if it had intercepted any drones or what their targets were.

The attack marked the first time Iran had ever launched a full-scale military assault on Israel, despite decades of enmity dating back to the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Iran had vowed revenge since an April 1 airstrike in Syria killed two Iranian generals inside an Iranian consular building. Iran accused Israel of being behind the attack. Israel hasn’t commented on it.

Israel and Iran have been on a collision course throughout Israel’s six-month war against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. The war erupted after Hamas and Islamic Jihad, two militant groups backed by Iran, carried out a devastating cross-border attack on Oct. 7 that killed 1,200 people in Israel and kidnapped 250 others. An Israeli offensive in Gaza has caused widespread devastation and killed over 33,000 people, according to local health officials.

Almost immediately after the war erupted, Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militant group in Lebanon, began attacking Israel’s northern border. The two sides have been involved in daily exchanges of fire, while Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, Syria and Yemen have launched rockets and missiles toward Israel.

In a statement carried late Saturday by Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency, the country’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard acknowledged launching “dozens of drones and missiles towards the occupied territories and positions of the Zionist regime.” The statement did not elaborate.

Online videos shared by state television purported to show delta-wing-style drones resembling the Iranian Shahed-136 drones long used by Russia in its war on Ukraine. The drones are bomb-carrying and slow-flying. Ukraine has successfully used both surface-to-air missiles and ground fire to target the drones.

Iran has a vast arsenal of drones and missiles. Tehran’s choice of the Shahed-136 drones give Israel and its allies hours to shoot them down. It does not appear Iran used any of its ballistic missiles in the attack, which would pose a greater risk to Israel.

Israel has a multilayered air-defense network that includes systems capable of intercepting a variety of threats including long-range missiles, cruise missiles, drones and short-range rockets.

Hagari, the army spokesman, said Israel was “prepared and ready” with both defensive and offensive responses. But he cautioned that the air defenses are not 100% effective and urged the public to heed safety instructions.

The army’s Home Front Command canceled school on Sunday and limited public gatherings to no more than 1,000 people. Israel closed its airspace and canceled all flights.

Earlier Saturday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned: “Whoever harms us, we will harm them.”

In Washington, President Joe Biden cut short a weekend trip to his beach house in Delaware to return to the White House. He was set to convene a principals meeting of the National Security Council on Saturday to discuss the unfolding attack, the White House said.

“The United States will stand with the people of Israel and support their defense against these threats from Iran,” National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement.

Gen. Erik Kurilla, the head of the U.S. military’s Central Command, was in Israel over the weekend consulting with Israeli defense officials about the Iranian threat. The Central Command oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East, while Israel has a formidable arsenal that includes long-range missiles and F-35 stealth warplanes.

For days, Iranian officials including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had threatened to “slap” Israel for its Syria strike.

In Iran’s capital, Tehran, witnesses saw long lines at gas stations early Sunday as people appeared worried about what may come next. Dozens of hard-liners demonstrated in support of the attack at Palestine Square.

Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported heavy Israeli airstrikes and shelling on multiple locations in south Lebanon following Iran's launch of drones.

Flight-tracking data late Saturday showed the airspace over Jordan empty, while few flights continued on their north-south routes over Iraq. A sole Middle East Airlines flight from Dubai to Beirut remained airborne over Syria. Lebanon was closing its airspace.

I hope this isn’t a real war. I hope it stops at this.

[Soloist]

Cruise missiles are supposed to have launched but ballistics seem unlikely yet.

I don’t know how long cruise missiles will take to arrive but everything I’m seeing is claiming the drones arrive 0200.

Ballistics are much quicker.

[Grace]

I guess the President's warning of "Don't" didn't work.

This attack is retaliatory, against Israel for their suspected strike on an Iranian consular building in Syria's capital, Damascus, which killed two generals and five officers in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Before 2021 Iran was broke. But the lifting of sanctions after 2021 empowered Iran to become very wealthy to the tune of billions of dollars. They now have the financial means to pull off a full-scale war on Israel.

https://thehill.com/opinion/congress-bl ... ust-shift/

[Josh]

I guess the President's warning of "Don't" didn't work.

This attack is retaliatory, against Israel for their suspected strike on an Iranian consular building in Syria's capital, Damascus, which killed two generals and five officers in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Why on earth did Israel do that?

[RZehr]

I guess the President's warning of "Don't" didn't work.

This attack is retaliatory, against Israel for their suspected strike on an Iranian consular building in Syria's capital, Damascus, which killed two generals and five officers in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Why on earth did Israel do that?

It did seem like quite an escalatory move.

[RZehr]

This, according to the news site that is banned on Mennonet.

The vast majority of missiles were intercepted outside Israel's territory by aerial defense systems, its military said. There have been no reports of injuries suffered directly through Iranian strikes, according to Israel’s emergency service.
…
US forces intercepted more than 70 one-way attack drones and at least three ballistic missiles during Iran's attack on Israel, according to two US officials familiar with the situation.

The ballistic missiles were intercepted by warships in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, one of the officials said. Iran launched more than 100 ballistic missiles in total at Israel, according to a senior administration official.

The US Navy currently has two destroyers in that area, both are guided missile destroyers capable of intercepting missile and drone launches.
US fighter jets were also part of the response to Iran’s attack on Saturday and shot down drones launched towards Israel

[Ken]

So the question in my mind, is this:

Did Iran launch a slow moving missile and drone attack that they knew would all get shot down, simply for show since they felt they had to retaliate for Israel's attack on their embassy? Knowing that that it would fail because they didn't really want to escalate into a bigger war and potentially draw in the US?

Or did they actually seek to do major damage inside Israel and this is the best that they could do?

It appears from the news coverage that all the Iranian drones and missiles were targeted at military installations in the Golan Heights. Which the Muslim world views as occupied territory and not part of Israel proper. So that is also likely calculated to not be an escalation of the conflict as would be the case if they aimed at civilian targets in Israel proper.

[RZehr]

The Israeli military said Sunday that “99%” of the more than 300 projectiles fired at Israel by Iran were intercepted.

Only “a small number” of ballistic missiles reached the country's territory, Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said.

The remaining ballistic missiles, all cruise missiles and all drones were intercepted before reaching Israeli territory, he added.
Around 170 drones, more than 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles were launched at Israel by Iran, he said, the vast majority intercepted by the Israeli Air Force and Israeli “partners.”

The ballistic missiles that did reach Israel fell on the Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel, Hagari said, adding that they caused only light structural damage. The base was functioning and continuing its operations following the attack, with planes continuing to use the base, he added.

Some of the weapons launched at Israel were fired from Iraq and Yemen, Hagari added.

Remarkable.

[RZehr]

Iran’s said on Sunday that the attack was a legitimate act of self-defence under the UN charter and “the matter can be deemed concluded”.

Israel, on the other hand, characterised the Iranian action as a “major escalation” and was reported to have informed the US and other counties in the Middle East that it will have to respond.

There seems little doubt the West will try and prevent a counter attack but Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not a man who is easily constrained.

Just like Iran’s leaders, his position at home is precarious and if he fails to react he could be pushed out by the religious fanatics on which his coalition government depends.

The Americans certainly sound like they will push hard to stop the conflict escalating.

Almost as soon as Israel’s skies fell silent on Sunday morning, US president Joe Biden indicated that he would be seeking a diplomatic solution.

He said he would “co-ordinate a united diplomatic response to Iran’s brazen attack”, while warning Iran that America “remains vigilant to all threats” in the region.

The message was quickly echoed by London, with prime minister Rishi Sunak said to be “intent on de-escalating the crisis”.

“All of our efforts at the moment are on de-escalating this. We do not want a miscalculation or an escalation in events because we know that that will take its toll,” said Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, when asked for the Government’s position.

The same message was propagated by nations as diverse as Russia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, France and the United Arab Emirates.

Russia, which has close ties to Iran, urged restraint and expressed “extreme concern over another dangerous escalation in the region”.

China added: “The conflict must end now. China calls on the international community, especially countries with influence, to play a constructive role for the peace and stability of the region.”

These are not just words. Diplomats the world over can see the risk. If a full-scale war breaks out between Israel and Iran, it will almost certainly drag large parts of the rest of the world in with devastating consequences.

Already the Iranian military is goading them, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claiming that its strikes were “even more successful than anticipated”.

He also claimed that the attack was “deliberately constrained, matching the scale of aggression exhibited by the Zionist regime.”

Israel too is posturing.

A senior Israeli intelligence source told The Telegraph the Iranian operation was a significant setback to Tehran which had hoped to show its might in the wake of Israel’s airstrike on Iran’s consulate compound in Damascus earlier this month.

“They hadn’t predicted the coalition working against them, British, French, US, Jordanians intercepting the missiles, so it’s something incredible when you think about the status of Israel just a week ago when we were on the verge of being branded South Africa,” he said.

“It’s a major strategic blow to the Iranians and a setback for the Iranian axis. I don’t think they’ll resume it as it was such a disastrous attack and a major failure.”

If there is hope, it resides in the fact that a very significant number of the projectiles fired by Iran on Saturday were brought down by western military assets and not the IDF.

[Soloist]

Seems like a measured attack as a means of reducing political pressure at home. If it was too small, the goal might not have worked. As it was, if they really did intercept 99%, that would work out to 1-2 cruise missiles making it and around 5-6 drones. From what I heard, all the ballistics were intercepted by US assets no near assets to Israel actually launched to coincide with the attack.

If Israel is insistent on a counter attack they could literally launch 1 missile to do equivalent damage and mock them at the same time.