Poll: Auto Accident Fatalities and Injuries

[Ernie]

For about a month, have worked hard at not driving distractedly. I'm curious how the rest of you doing who voted in favor of changing some driving habits...

[Robert]

I am a late comer to this thread. I am not going to read the 11 pages, so if someone else has said this, they are smart and right.

In 5 years there will be very little auto accidents. Self driving cars are already correcting the human error and when most all cars on the road are self driving in 5 to 10 years, the numbers will plummet. There is already concern from the auto insurance companies that they may not be needed any more. They will have to figure out some other way to scam us.

[Ernie]

I am a late comer to this thread. I am not going to read the 11 pages, so if someone else has said this, they are smart and right.

In 5 years there will be very little auto accidents. Self driving cars are already correcting the human error and when most all cars on the road are self driving in 5 to 10 years, the numbers will plummet. There is already concern from the auto insurance companies that they may not be needed any more. They will have to figure out some other way to scam us.

But what about between now and then. Tens of thousands of lives could be saved in the next five years if enough people cared.

[Ken]

Which do people think will happen first? Wholesale conversion to EVs? Or wholesale conversion to self-driving cars?

The transition to electric cars is vastly simpler to accomplish than the transition to fully self-driving cars, and is already in progress.

And, for that matter, every single company doing serious self-driving technology (Waymo, Cruise, Tesla, etc.) is doing so on electric car platforms. As are all the self-driving car companies coming out of China. So gas-powered self driving cars really isn't a thing. No one that I'm aware of is trying to build a self-driving vehicle onto legacy gasoline powered platforms. All that electronics technology (the sensors and computers) makes more vastly sense to build into an electric car platform than a gasoline car platform. Especially because a lot of it requires higher voltage than the typical 12 volt systems in gas powered cars.

So I would suggest that when self-driving cars do become widespread, they will essentially be 2nd or 3rd generation electric cars. And widespread self-driving technology won't happen until after we are largely converted from gas to electric cars.

I don't see that happening in 5 years. The new cars that will be in the showrooms in 5 years are largely those in the works today. Which are mostly 2nd generation EVs and hybrids, not self-driving cars.

[Neto]

As a "car guy" myself (and as far back as I can recall), and also someone who participates on half a dozen different automobile forums, the majority opinion among such people (and it isn't all just men, either - there are some really sharp "car ladies" too) is that since the manufacturing drift toward battery cars is being forced, there is reason to be suspicious. That is, if it were actually a good idea, one that will benefit everyone concerned, it would not be necessary to legislate it.

Back in the early days of automobile manufacturing, gas vehicles won out over battery vehicles, which actually had an earlier start. One of the big reasons for this, while much less extreme, still exists - capability to do distance travel. On a different front, public transportation in cities remained largely electric powered.

I think that until someone develops a wireless electrical power system for highway travel with actual ELECTRIC vehicles (with batteries as a backup, and for rural and other smaller roadways), the public opinion among those closest to the American cultural connection with road travel will continue to be on the resentful side, not appreciating the governmental interference in free market enterprise.

I also do not think that computer technology is ready to exceed the capacity of the human mind in dealing with the less-than-mundane driving tasks. Can these systems observe a vehicle or other conveyance (whether powered by an engine or motor, or by human power) that is approaching an intersection at right angles to it's path? Can it "keep in mind" that a moving object that was previously observed, but now out of view is still there, still approaching?

I WILL admit that some drivers need assistance. But making it even easier to ignore what is going on around you is not the solution. Things that create distractions are multiplying, and so drivers that engage with these devices are becoming less and less attentive. I think that this approach is attempting to solve the wrong problem (and if I were politically active, I would oppose it at every turn).

[RZehr]

I’ve been looking into solar panels for my house. In this process of talking with solar companies, I’ve been told that the reason our previously affordable electricity rates have gone up 10% +/- last year and going up again 20% + this year, is for two primary reasons.
First, now that power companies are being held liable for billions of dollars in forest fires, they are increased to cover those costs.
Second, Oregon has passed a law that mandates steep increases in green renewable power, which is much more expensive.
Third, the upgrades to infrastructure to accommodate increase in power demand in the coming years

So with rates going up a lot, will running electric cars become as expensive as gas? I thought we were already pretty close to parity.

[Ken]

I’ve been looking into solar panels for my house. In this process of talking with solar companies, I’ve been told that the reason our previously affordable electricity rates have gone up 10% +/- last year and going up again 20% + this year, is for two primary reasons.
First, now that power companies are being held liable for billions of dollars in forest fires, they are increased to cover those costs.
Second, Oregon has passed a law that mandates steep increases in green renewable power, which is much more expensive.
Third, the upgrades to infrastructure to accommodate increase in power demand in the coming years

So with rates going up a lot, will running electric cars become as expensive as gas? I thought we were already pretty close to parity.

I don't have any great insight about future electric prices. But one advantage of electricity is that pretty much all of us have the capability to generate our own electricity through solar and in some cases wind. None of us have the capability to drill our own oil and refine it into gasoline in our backyards and farms. So electricity has the potential to make us vastly more self-sufficient both individually and as a community.

That said, you actually have two different prices to be aware of. Yes, electricity prices could increase. But oil prices can also increase. It isn't inconceivable to think that we might see $10/gallon gasoline in 10 years. Especially with the rise of China and India, neither of which have much in the way of their own oil resources. In 10 years we could be competing with a lot of other countries for oil, and oil prices are global. Domestic oil production does nothing to insulate us from global price swings in oil.

Electricity gives us a choice. Do you want to lock your lifestyle and livelihood into gasoline and then see gas prices triple or quadruple in a decade? Or do you want options?

[Ernie]

So I would suggest that when self-driving cars do become widespread, they will essentially be 2nd or 3rd generation electric cars. And widespread self-driving technology won't happen until after we are largely converted from gas to electric cars.

I don't see that happening in 5 years. The new cars that will be in the showrooms in 5 years are largely those in the works today. Which are mostly 2nd generation EVs and hybrids, not self-driving cars.

In that case, there are hundreds of thousands of more lives to be saved.

[RZehr]

I’ve been looking into solar panels for my house. In this process of talking with solar companies, I’ve been told that the reason our previously affordable electricity rates have gone up 10% +/- last year and going up again 20% + this year, is for two primary reasons.
First, now that power companies are being held liable for billions of dollars in forest fires, they are increased to cover those costs.
Second, Oregon has passed a law that mandates steep increases in green renewable power, which is much more expensive.
Third, the upgrades to infrastructure to accommodate increase in power demand in the coming years

So with rates going up a lot, will running electric cars become as expensive as gas? I thought we were already pretty close to parity.

I don't have any great insight about future electric prices. But one advantage of electricity is that pretty much all of us have the capability to generate our own electricity through solar and in some cases wind. None of us have the capability to drill our own oil and refine it into gasoline in our backyards and farms. So electricity has the potential to make us vastly more self-sufficient both individually and as a community.

That said, you actually have two different prices to be aware of. Yes, electricity prices could increase. But oil prices can also increase. It isn't inconceivable to think that we might see $10/gallon gasoline in 10 years. Especially with the rise of China and India, neither of which have much in the way of their own oil resources. In 10 years we could be competing with a lot of other countries for oil, and oil prices are global. Domestic oil production does nothing to insulate us from global price swings in oil.

Electricity gives us a choice. Do you want to lock your lifestyle and livelihood into gasoline and then see gas prices triple or quadruple in a decade? Or do you want options?

True.

[Ken]

So I would suggest that when self-driving cars do become widespread, they will essentially be 2nd or 3rd generation electric cars. And widespread self-driving technology won't happen until after we are largely converted from gas to electric cars.

I don't see that happening in 5 years. The new cars that will be in the showrooms in 5 years are largely those in the works today. Which are mostly 2nd generation EVs and hybrids, not self-driving cars.

In that case, there are hundreds of thousands of more lives to be saved.

I agree.

I don't think we will see fully automated self-driving cars breaking into the consumer marketplace for 10 years. And then another decade for them to become the predominant form of vehicle on the road. We will be fully EV before we are fully self-driving. Since self-driving cars are likely to just be an advanced form of EVs.