Nord Stream

[RZehr]

Pick and discuss.

[steve-in-kville]

We're talking about the pipeline thing, right?

[Ken]

Russia seems the most likely culprit. Latest reporting is that there were Russian warships sighted in that area in the days leading up to the sabotage.

Why would Russia blow up its own pipeline you ask? It seems that Russia was planning to cut off gas supplies to the west anyway this winter in retaliation. However the company that owns the pipeline actually has contractual agreements with western European gas companies to supply x-amounts of gas and if they simply turn off the pipeline they could be held in violation of those contracts and subject to enormous penalties. Which could be obtained by appropriating already seized Russian assets held in western Banks as well as the pipeline infrastructure. But if it is a terrorist attack (or act of God) then shrug. Nothing they can do, sorry.

The other possible culprit not mentioned in your poll is non-state business interests. There are many VERY POWERFUL business interests who are going to realize massive windfall profits from the shutdown of of Nord Stream. Both gas suppliers in North America and also gas suppliers in mid-east Gulf states. As well as 3rd party interests who may have huge plays in natural gas such as futures contracts. We are talking about tens of billions of dollars easily. It seems to me that any one of these shady interests could have contracted to have this sabotage done through any number of 3rd party mercenary groups, who probably wouldn't even have known who was actually paying them.

I spent a decade of my life working in and around the Bering Sea trawl fishing industry. There are literally hundreds if not thousands of old North Sea and Baltic Sea fishing trawlers who could have done this sort of sabotage with ordinary trawl fishing gear. The pipeline was in very shallow water (about 70 meters). Any old trawler with trawl cables on a capstan winch could have dragged the sea floor with a makeshift claw anchor until they hung up on the pipeline (which was apparently just sitting on the sea floor and not burried). And then once they hood into the pipeline with a trawl cable, just pull it taut and send any kind of explosive charge sliding down the cable like an old anti-ship mine or any other big explosive charge. Put it on a long delay and you can be long away from the area. Any competent trawler deckhand could probably rig something up to that effect. It wouldn't take special forces and submarines and such to blow up a shallow water pipeline.

So I wouldn't rule out non-state actors who stand to gain billions from the shut down of Russian gas imports to the west.

[MaxPC]

Time will reveal all.

[steve-in-kville]

It was aliens

[RZehr]

We're talking about the pipeline thing, right?

Yes sir.

[RZehr]

The other possible culprit not mentioned in your poll is non-state business interests. There are many VERY POWERFUL business interests who are going to realize massive windfall profits from the shutdown of of Nord Stream. Both gas suppliers in North America and also gas suppliers in mid-east Gulf states. As well as 3rd party interests who may have huge plays in natural gas such as futures contracts. We are talking about tens of billions of dollars easily. It seems to me that any one of these shady interests could have contracted to have this sabotage done through any number of 3rd party mercenary groups, who probably wouldn't even have known who was actually paying them.

Even though did use the word fringe, I suggest that these would fall into number 2, by virtue of the words: powerful, 3rd party interests, shady, mercenary, non-state by virtue of nearest fit.

[RZehr]

Latest reporting is that there were Russian warships sighted in that area in the days leading up to the sabotage.

But the area was under the control of the US allies. And the US natural gas sales may benefit from it.

[RZehr]

It was aliens

Space aliens? That's a 2. Given the fact that water is so very impossible to find in liquid form in outer space, it seems unlikely that they would be able to easily go under water. Unless.....the American Space Force gave them the technology. In that case it's a 3.

[appleman2006]

For sure no. 2