Coronavirus Outbreak

[AnthonyMartin]

Giant uptick in cases today due to a change in testing processes. Any epidemiologists or infections diseases experts on the forum? Previous tests used were 30-40% accurate, supplies for testing were running low, so quite a few folks were sent home without quarantine.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/worl ... virus.html

Populated cities on China's east coast won't make containing this any easier.

John's Hopkins heat map is very interesting.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

[Fidelio]

Giant uptick in cases today due to a change in testing processes. Any epidemiologists or infections diseases experts on the forum? Previous tests used were 30-40% accurate, supplies for testing were running low, so quite a few folks were sent home without quarantine.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/worl ... virus.html

Populated cities on China's east coast won't make containing this any easier.

John's Hopkins heat map is very interesting.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

Uptick in reported cases anyway. How about this:

Coronavirus Outbreak Simulation Took Place in October 2019

Equally curious is the fact that Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation sponsored a novel coronavirus pandemic preparedness exercise October 18, 2019, in New York called "Event 201."46 The simulation predicted a global death toll of 65 million people within a span of 18 months.47 As reported by Forbes December 12, 2019:48

"The experts ran through a carefully designed, detailed simulation of a new (fictional) viral illness called CAPS or coronavirus acute pulmonary syndrome. This was modeled after previous epidemics like SARS and MERS."

Sounds exactly like NCIP, doesn't it? Yet the new coronavirus responsible for NCIP had not yet been identified at the time of the simulation, and the first case wasn't reported until two months later.

https://articles.mercola.com/sites/arti ... virus.aspx

Good overview of viruses and discussion of Corona:
[video][/video]

[Aurien]

Giant uptick in cases today due to a change in testing processes. Any epidemiologists or infections diseases experts on the forum? Previous tests used were 30-40% accurate, supplies for testing were running low, so quite a few folks were sent home without quarantine.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/worl ... virus.html

Populated cities on China's east coast won't make containing this any easier.

John's Hopkins heat map is very interesting.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

Uptick in reported cases anyway. How about this:

Coronavirus Outbreak Simulation Took Place in October 2019

Equally curious is the fact that Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation sponsored a novel coronavirus pandemic preparedness exercise October 18, 2019, in New York called "Event 201."46 The simulation predicted a global death toll of 65 million people within a span of 18 months.47 As reported by Forbes December 12, 2019:48

"The experts ran through a carefully designed, detailed simulation of a new (fictional) viral illness called CAPS or coronavirus acute pulmonary syndrome. This was modeled after previous epidemics like SARS and MERS."

Sounds exactly like NCIP, doesn't it? Yet the new coronavirus responsible for NCIP had not yet been identified at the time of the simulation, and the first case wasn't reported until two months later.

https://articles.mercola.com/sites/arti ... virus.aspx

John Hopkins' response.
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/ ... nt201.html

Statement about nCoV and our pandemic exercise
In October 2019, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security hosted a pandemic tabletop exercise called Event 201 with partners, the World Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Recently, the Center for Health Security has received questions about whether that pandemic exercise predicted the current novel coronavirus outbreak in China. To be clear, the Center for Health Security and partners did not make a prediction during our tabletop exercise. For the scenario, we modeled a fictional coronavirus pandemic, but we explicitly stated that it was not a prediction. Instead, the exercise served to highlight preparedness and response challenges that would likely arise in a very severe pandemic. We are not now predicting that the nCoV-2019 outbreak will kill 65 million people. Although our tabletop exercise included a mock novel coronavirus, the inputs we used for modeling the potential impact of that fictional virus are not similar to nCoV-2019.

[Wade]

I have seen a few videos of Bill Gates in his goals of putting vaccines in mosquitoes, global warming and population numbers, and reports of him being the biggest charity donor in the world - but then found most of his money was going to Monsato…. I am VERY leery of trusting anything with the name Bill Gates attached to it.

[Judas Maccabeus]

I have seen a few videos of Bill Gates in his goals of putting vaccines in mosquitoes, global warming and population numbers, and reports of him being the biggest charity donor in the world - but then found most of his money was going to Monsato…. I am VERY leery of trusting anything with the name Bill Gates attached to it.

Public health people run drills and simulations on a fairly regular basis, so they can be ready when the next crisis hits. No surprise they used China, it is a Petri dish for new zoonotic disease.

J.M.

[Josh]

I used to work with someone who studied the flu in college and got her Master's focused on that (but somehow ended up in a profession similar to mine - I guess it's what paid the bills back in the 2000s). According to her, some kind of coronavirus epidemic like has been predicted for a long time.

The bigger question is how an epidemic like this hasn't happened sooner. It's been predicted as a consequence of large populations, global travel, along with many different countries with varying degrees of hygiene, food handling practices, etc.

[Aurien]

I have seen a few videos of Bill Gates in his goals of putting vaccines in mosquitoes, global warming and population numbers, and reports of him being the biggest charity donor in the world - but then found most of his money was going to Monsato…. I am VERY leery of trusting anything with the name Bill Gates attached to it.

Public health people run drills and simulations on a fairly regular basis, so they can be ready when the next crisis hits. No surprise they used China, it is a Petri dish for new zoonotic disease.

J.M.

The Event 201 simulation didn't actually use China as a starting point though. It had the epidemic starting on pig farms in Brazil and spreading across the globe from there.

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/ ... nario.html

[Judas Maccabeus]

I have seen a few videos of Bill Gates in his goals of putting vaccines in mosquitoes, global warming and population numbers, and reports of him being the biggest charity donor in the world - but then found most of his money was going to Monsato…. I am VERY leery of trusting anything with the name Bill Gates attached to it.

Public health people run drills and simulations on a fairly regular basis, so they can be ready when the next crisis hits. No surprise they used China, it is a Petri dish for new zoonotic disease.

J.M.

The Event 201 simulation didn't actually use China as a starting point though. It had the epidemic starting on pig farms in Brazil and spreading across the globe from there.

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/ ... nario.html

Yes I see. It is bit less plausible than China, but still within reason. The Hopkins School of Public Health and Hygiene is one of the oldest of its kind, and that they run this sort of simulation is nothing sinister, it is what they do. BTW I was a finalist for a junior facility position there some 35 years ago. I did not get the job.

J.M.

[Aurien]

Public health people run drills and simulations on a fairly regular basis, so they can be ready when the next crisis hits. No surprise they used China, it is a Petri dish for new zoonotic disease.

J.M.

The Event 201 simulation didn't actually use China as a starting point though. It had the epidemic starting on pig farms in Brazil and spreading across the globe from there.

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/ ... nario.html

Yes I see. It is bit less plausible than China, but still within reason. The Hopkins School of Public Health and Hygiene is one of the oldest of its kind, and that they run this sort of simulation is nothing sinister, it is what they do. BTW I was a finalist for a junior facility position there some 35 years ago. I did not get the job.

J.M.

What is your profession if you don't mind my asking? I know you've mentioned the health field a number of times.

Interestingly Brazil scored better than China on the Global Health Security Index. Brazil was 22 out of 195 countries and China was 51 out of 195. I wonder if the results of the simulation would have been worse if they had in fact used China instead of Brazil?

https://www.ghsindex.org/

[temporal1]

I used to work with someone who studied the flu in college and got her Master's focused on that (but somehow ended up in a profession similar to mine - I guess it's what paid the bills back in the 2000s). According to her, some kind of coronavirus epidemic like has been predicted for a long time.

The bigger question is how an epidemic like this hasn't happened sooner.
It's been predicted as a consequence of large populations, global travel, along with many different countries with varying degrees of hygiene, food handling practices, etc.

Now years ago, my GP spoke about how the world is “overdue” for the next big pandemic,
like the Spanish flu.

It’s thought, WWI military actions/travel worsened the problem, surely it did.
Non-military global travel is far more common today, the global distribution of mail, shipping, etc., it drives the world.

In WWI times, it was thought troops were infected overseas, then brought the disease home to the U.S. Several years ago, i read science is finding the disease may have started IN the U.S., on farms, the U.S. was still very agriculturally based. (i don’t believe there is certainty of origin.)

“The site of origin of the 1918 influenza pandemic and its public health implications”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC340389/

.. It has never been clear, however, where this pandemic began.
Since influenza is an endemic disease, not simply an epidemic one, it is impossible to answer this question with absolute certainty.
Nonetheless, in seven years of work on a history of the pandemic, this author conducted an extensive survey of contemporary medical and lay literature searching for epidemiological evidence – the only evidence available.
That review suggests that the most likely site of origin was Haskell County, Kansas, an isolated and sparsely populated county in the southwest corner of the state, in January 1918 [1]. If this hypothesis is correct, it has public policy implications. ..

Others may know better .. i can only wonder ..
i wonder if some potential pandemics may have been averted, by improved education, hygiene, relatively fast vaccine development, etc.?? HIV-AIDS is not a flu-type virus, but it was linked to animals, in the 1980’s, it was a huge scare.

(i believe) more could have been done to prevent the spread, it continues ‘way more than it should. imho. it is nearly 100% preventable. (i believe) HIV-AIDS is “accepted” as PC, and this is the central reason it has not been eradicated. i feel very sorry for those with new cases, to repeat, nearly 100% preventable. (i wonder) if this is the first potential pandemic that has been “normalized?”

CDC / HIV and Youth
https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/group/age/youth/index.html

WHO live in Geneva, Switzerland, on Coronavirus 56 sec.