Global Warning/Climate Change

[Josh]

If there were global warming, you might expect something like this:



It looks serious to me.

Now post the all time lows.

[Ken]

Now post the all time lows.

In a warming climate you would expect to see an increase in the AVERAGE annual temperature. And sure enough, that is what we see pretty much everywhere. And that how we know the planet is actually warming.

We would also expect previously stable climate systems to be disrupted which can cause both higher highs and lower lows.

I suggest you explore the climate effects of Rossby waves

[Josh]

Now post the all time lows.

In a warming climate you would expect to see an increase in the AVERAGE annual temperature. And sure enough, that is what we see pretty much everywhere. And that how we know the planet is actually warming.

We would also expect previously stable climate systems to be disrupted which can cause both higher highs and lower lows.

I suggest you explore the climate effects of Rossby waves

Is there actually any accurate data on that that goes back far enough to see anything statistically significant and that isn’t affected by things like urban heat islands?

[Ken]

Now post the all time lows.

In a warming climate you would expect to see an increase in the AVERAGE annual temperature. And sure enough, that is what we see pretty much everywhere. And that how we know the planet is actually warming.

We would also expect previously stable climate systems to be disrupted which can cause both higher highs and lower lows.

I suggest you explore the climate effects of Rossby waves

Is there actually any accurate data on that that goes back far enough to see anything statistically significant and that isn’t affected by things like urban heat islands?

Yes. In fact, there is.

People around the world have been keeping accurate climate records for well over a century. The only thing new today is that a lot of it is digitized and automated. And a lot of old data has also been digitized when it was previously only found in the written logs of various weather stations around the world.



Some highlights (and yes, they are all statistically significant):

• Earth’s temperature has risen by an average of 0.11° Fahrenheit (0.06° Celsius) per decade since 1850, or about 2° F in total.
• The rate of warming since 1982 is more than three times as fast as before 1982: 0.36° F (0.20° C) per decade.
• 2023 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850 by a wide margin.
• 2023 was 2.12 °F (1.18 °C) above the 20th-century average of 57.0°F (13.9°C).
• 2023 was 2.43 °F (1.35 °C) above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900).
• The 10 warmest years in the historical record have all occurred in the past decade (2014-2023).

[RZehr]

And yet the wooly mammoths roamed in the tropics of the far north. And then what, man made global warming in the 1800’s caused an ice age up there?

[Valerie]

And yet the wooly mammoths roamed in the tropics of the far north. And then what, man made global warming in the 1800’s caused an ice age up there?

What caused the ice age to warm/end? Certainly not man.
Shouldn't we ask these questions?

[Ken]

And yet the wooly mammoths roamed in the tropics of the far north. And then what, man made global warming in the 1800’s caused an ice age up there?

I have no idea what you are talking about. There weren't wooly mammoths roaming anywhere in the 1800s.

And yes, the earth has gone through many natural climate changes and cycles over the past millions of years. No one disputes that. We also had mass extinctions where upwards of 75% of all live on earth was extinguished.

What we are seeing today is the onset of a new human-caused mass extinction (not just from climate change but that is a part of it) that is vastly faster than anything previously seen in earth's history. Where will it end? Who knows. But we do know that much of the earth will be less habitable for humans as a result, even as new parts of the earth may become more habitable. We aren't going to extinguish life on earth. Life is far too resilient for that. But we are certainly going to make vast stretches of the world less habitable, can cause MASS social dislocation. If you think immigration is an issue today, wait until vast stretches of the tropics and third world are uninhabitable.

The real question for society is whether the costs of halting human-caused climate change are greater or lesser than the costs to society from climate change itself. Every analysis I have seen says it is vastly cheaper and more cost effective to reduce the causes than deal with the effects. Which is usually the case with anything. For example, it is cheaper to prevent a fire in the first place rather than rebuild your house after it has burned to the ground.

[Ken]

And yet the wooly mammoths roamed in the tropics of the far north. And then what, man made global warming in the 1800’s caused an ice age up there?

What caused the ice age to warm/end? Certainly not man.
Shouldn't we ask these questions?

We have asked those questions and there is a tremendous amount of research in that area. Every change to a system as complex as the earth's climate tends to have multiple inter-related causes and effects. But one of the reasons the ice ages ended was rising CO2 in the atmosphere caused by changes in circulations in the southern oceans. But the rise in CO2 that accompanied the end of the ice ages was about 1000x slower than what we are causing today from human activities.

There are, in fact, natural causes for changing CO2 in the atmosphere over the past millions of years. But they tend to happen thousands of times slower than what humans are doing today.

No one is claiming that the earth doesn't experience natural climate cycles. Obviously it does. The question is whether it is prudent for humans to accelerate this change 1000-fold through our own activities. And what that will do to the earth that we depend on to survive and thrive.

[RZehr]

And yet the wooly mammoths roamed in the tropics of the far north. And then what, man made global warming in the 1800’s caused an ice age up there?

I have no idea what you are talking about. There weren't wooly mammoths roaming anywhere in the 1800s.

I know. But there wasn’t any man made climate change “millions and millions” of years ago.

And yet the climate changed anyway.

[temporal1]

Yes, I have noticed all of this. But if we are getting more snow, I haven’t noticed. In fact it seems we have been getting less.

And if we do get more snow in the future because of global warming, how would that extra snow not help glaciers?

somewhere earlier in this topic is a report describing how warming is less deadly than cooling, with reasons why.
i well remember the awful extended subzero temps we had in the 1970’s. it’s dangerous.

the elite who stand to profit from their big ideas, do NOT live by their stances.
their self indulgences, wars, etc., all reflect they are NOT worried. when they begin moving away from their beachfront properties, Martha’s Vineyard and the rest, they will be more convincing.

when the wealthy feel a threat, they respond to it. they become stripped down to being vulnerable humans, just like the rest.

in any event, God provides.

i don’t know of anyone who experienced GLOBAL COOLING of the 70’s who wants to return.
it was frightening. the reverse of today wrt to media fear mongering.